522
FXUS66 KHNX 170325
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1022 AM PST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WITH PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATED NORTH OF
FRESNO COUNTY.
2. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. TONIGHT HAS
THE BEST CHANCES AT 20 TO 40 PERCENT CURRENTLY BETWEEN 4 AND 8
AM TUESDAY MORNING.
3. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
4. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANGE IN PATTERN WITH INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS RAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA AS A
TROUGH IS SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER, NOT MUCH
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE VALLEY FROM THIS STORM. THERE IS A 20
TO 30 CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE FOR TUOLUMNE MEADOWS
AND TIOGA PASS FROM THIS STORM. WITH THE STORM MOSTLY BEING TO
THE NORTH, MERCED AND MARIPOSA HAS A 30 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN WITH THE REST OF THE VALLEY
SEEING 15 PERCENT OR LESS PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATION.
LATEST ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT A RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES THAT THERE WILL BE A
65 PERCENT CHANCE AND GREATER OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST
65 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE ALSO WILL PROVIDE CALM
CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE AND SINKING AIR ALOFT WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG EVERY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN QUARTER MILE IN FOG MAINLY AFTER 4 AM.
THE LOW PROBABILITIES ARE DUE TO THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH.
THE ENSEMBLES DIVERGE ON SATURDAY REGARDING THE POSITIONING AND
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE INTO SUNDAY WITH A STRONG TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO ARE DIVERGING AS TO THE
POSITIONING OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE TROUGH AS THERE IS AT LEAST
A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES
OF 250 KG/M/S FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN THE VALLEY, THERE IS A
20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVE A 70 TO
80 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND A 33 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR BETWEEN 21 AND 0Z DUE TO SHOWERS IN
MERCED. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BEGIN SPREADING AROUND 9Z-12Z
WITH MIST AND A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR IN FOG BETWEEN
12Z AND 16Z AS OF NOW.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/16/2024 13:57
EXPIRES: 12/17/2024 23:59 ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 17 2024,
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED
IN FRESNO, KERN, AND MADERA COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS,
MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA)
AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION............JPK
DSS........................BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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