158
FXUS66 KHNX 171141
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
341 AM PST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. TONIGHT’S
CHANCES ARE 30 TO 50 PERCENT CURRENTLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10AM
TUESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES SHARPLY INCREASE FOR TOMORROW
MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG.
2. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
3. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE A CHANGE IN PATTERN WITH INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN AND SNOW.
DISCUSSION
WITH THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE UNSETTLED WEEKEND MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA LAST NIGHT, THERE COMES AGAIN THE CHANCE FOR FOG
FORMATION WITH THE NEWLY MOISTENED SOIL. THIS MORNING, THERE IS
A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN
RURAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN NORTHWESTERN
KERN COUNTY AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WEST SIDE
HILLS. AS SUCH, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH NOON TODAY. PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE FOG STEEPLY
INCREASE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, WITH MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTH OF BAKERSFIELD BEING BLANKETED IN 50 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCES OF VISIBILITY A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.
WITH FLOW FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS BEING MOSTLY ZONAL RIGHT
NOW BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A RIDGE, A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN TO BE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW,
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO HIGH 50S. BY THURSDAY OF
THIS WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
LOOK TO REACH 60 DEGREES, WITH THE HOTTEST DAY EXPECTED TO BE
FRIDAY, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO HIGH 60S. THIS
WARMUP WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS DEPICT ANOTHER CHANGE TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, CONTINUING EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
STARTING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH BRINGS THE CHANCE OF
RAIN AND SNOW TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER’S 8-14 DAY HAZARDS OUTLOOK HAS OUR AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT
TO MODERATE RISK FOR BOTH RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND SNOWFALL IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER FORECAST
UPDATES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
UNTIL 12Z. 30-40% CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS OR LESS TO DEVELOP
FOR KVIS BEGINNING 09Z, WITH 30% AT KFAT STARTING 12Z. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF MIST AND FOG TO SPREAD OVER KMCE AND
KMER FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY STARTING 14-15Z. 50-60% CHANCE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA BETWEEN 14-18Z. POSSIBLE MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS IN RURAL AREAS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DUE TO
POTENTIAL FOG AND MIST FORMATION. KBFL LOOKS TO SEE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/16/2024 13:57
EXPIRES: 12/17/2024 23:59
ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 17 2024, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND MADERA
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MERCED, AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ301>303-305>312.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...AS
PIO/IDSS..........VJP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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