457
FXUS66 KHNX 171820
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1020 AM PST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN VISIBILITY
FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT.
2.WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT RECORD
BREAKING ON FRIDAY.
3. THERE IS A 20 TO 45 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY. PROBABILITIES
INCREASE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE).
DISCUSSION
DENSE FOG RETURNED THIS MORNING IN PATCHES WITH STRATUS OVER
MOST OF THE VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING
BEGINNING TODAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENING
GREATLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP
BRING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH STABILITY FOR
FOG TO FORM. LATEST MODELS HAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT DROP
TO 200 FEET OR SO WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS A 75 PERCENT AND GREATER PROBABILITY
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 65 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE MODEL ENSEMBLES BECAME MORE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BY HAVING A STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS HAVE
THE HIGHER INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES IN BETTER
AGREEMENT TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE, THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN HAS DECREASED TO 20 TO 45 PERCENT EVERYDAY
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY EXCEPT FOR
KERN COUNTY. IN ADDITION, SATURDAY STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE DUE TO THIS CHANGE WITH A 40 TO 85 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 65 DEGREES.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST ENOUGH ON TUESDAY THAT THE TROUGH STARTS SLIDING IN
BRINGING IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW. TUESDAY HAS A 25 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE FOR THE VALLEY WITH
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH AND FOOTHILLS. THIS BODES
WELL WITH THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVING A 33 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN BOTH OUTLOOKS.
IN ADDITION, THE OUTLOOKS HAVE A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY:
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
21Z OR SO. BETWEEN 21Z AND 4Z, VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE. IFR CONDITIONS START TO APPEAR AGAIN BETWEEN 4Z AND
12Z WITH LIFR POSSIBLE IN FOG AFTER 9Z. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
DOMINANT FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY AFTER 12Z.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/16/2024 13:57
EXPIRES: 12/17/2024 23:59
ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 17 2024, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND MADERA
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MERCED, AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ301>303-305>307-
311.
PUBLIC...JPK
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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