341
FXUS66 KHNX 180100 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
500 PM PST TUE DEC 17 2024
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION WITH 00Z FORECAST ISSUANCE.
LATEST AIR QUALITY SECTION ATTACHED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A
40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN VISIBILITY
FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT.
2.WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT RECORD
BREAKING ON FRIDAY.
3. THERE IS A 20 TO 45 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY. PROBABILITIES
INCREASE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE).
DISCUSSION
DENSE FOG RETURNED THIS MORNING IN PATCHES WITH STRATUS OVER
MOST OF THE VALLEY. THIS IS DUE TO A RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING
BEGINNING TODAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS RIDGE STRENGTHENING
GREATLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP
BRING TEMPERATURES UP WHILE ALSO KEEPING ENOUGH STABILITY FOR
FOG TO FORM. LATEST MODELS HAVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT DROP
TO 200 FEET OR SO WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.
IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS A 75 PERCENT AND GREATER PROBABILITY
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 65 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE MODEL ENSEMBLES BECAME MORE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PATTERN SHIFT THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BY HAVING A STRONG
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. IN ADDITION, THE MODELS HAVE
THE HIGHER INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES IN BETTER
AGREEMENT TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE, THE
PROBABILITY OF RAIN HAS DECREASED TO 20 TO 45 PERCENT EVERYDAY
FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY EXCEPT FOR
KERN COUNTY. IN ADDITION, SATURDAY STILL IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE DUE TO THIS CHANGE WITH A 40 TO 85 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 65 DEGREES.
THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST ENOUGH ON TUESDAY THAT THE TROUGH STARTS SLIDING IN
BRINGING IN SOME RAIN AND SNOW. TUESDAY HAS A 25 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE FOR THE VALLEY WITH
THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTH AND FOOTHILLS. THIS BODES
WELL WITH THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS HAVING A 33 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN BOTH OUTLOOKS.
IN ADDITION, THE OUTLOOKS HAVE A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
00Z ISSUANCE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY:
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE VALLEY THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS START TO APPEAR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
WITH 30%-40% PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME
PERIOD. LIFR POSSIBLE IN FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WEDNESDAY
WITH 20%-30%. PROBABILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS DIMINISHES TO 20%
AFTER 16Z ON WEDNESDAY.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/17/2024 14:43
EXPIRES: 12/18/2024 23:59
ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 18 2024, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND TULARE
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, AND MERCED
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ301>303-305>307-
311.
PUBLIC...JPK
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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