206
FXUS66 KHNX 181729 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
929 AM PST WED DEC 18 2024
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT
RECORD BREAKING ON FRIDAY.
2. THERE IS A 20 TO 45 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING ON
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY. PROBABILITIES
INCREASE FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE).
3. THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THURSDAY MORNING THE
PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG GOES UP TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE STARTS THE DAY TODAY OVER THE GOLDEN
STATE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. JUST ENOUGH UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IN THE LOWEST 150 MB THIS MORNING IS KEEP A
THICK STRATUS LAYER IN PLACE WITH VISIBILITY STAYING ABOVE A
MILE. VALLEY WEATHER CAMERAS SHOW GOOD DRIVING VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AGAIN TODAY. THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE VALLEY.
THE ISSUE WILL BE STRATUS BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
SLIM PROBABILITY OF BREAK UP AND THAT COULD RUN TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 60, HOWEVER THE BEST BET REMAINS WITH HOLDING THE OVERCAST
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S AND GRAY AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS
PRIMED AGAIN. THE STRATUS WILL BE KEY. THE INDICATIONS IS THAT
NOT MUCH UPWARD MOTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WITH HIGHEST RH AT
THE SURFACE DECREASING WITH HEIGHT BACKS THE HI-RES ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF 40 TO 70 PERCENT OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A
QUARTER MILE. WILL NOT GO FOR THE DFA JUST TOO MANY WILDCARDS
THAT COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING.
THURSDAY THE RIDGE STARTS THE SLOW NUDGE TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH
DIGS DOWN INTO THE EAST PACIFIC OFF THE CA COAST. THE CLEARING
AND WARMING TREND FOR THE REGION. THIS CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
WITH PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 68 DEGREES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO 40 TO 70 PERCENT WITH NEAR 100
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR BAKERSFIELD WITH A PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THE DAILY MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 76
DEGREES AT 24 PERCENT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY A STRONG TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NORCAL HOWEVER
THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL FOR MOST OF INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY ONLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY AND NEXT WEDNESDAY A STRONG TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THAT COULD BRING A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM. THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING 1/4 OF AN INCH OF RAIN RANGES FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT
SOUTH OF HANFORD-VISALIA LINE, AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT NORTH OF THE
LINE.
AVIATION
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS, WIDEPSREAD MVFR WITH
AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND MIST/HAZE. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG
AFTER 12Z THU.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 18 2024,
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING
DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, AND MERCED COUNTIES, AND KERN
(GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...PROTON
AVIATION...DAS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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