926
FXUS66 KHNX 182103
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
103 PM PST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
BY FRIDAY.
2. THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG ON THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY IS 25 TO 50 PERCENT.
3. THERE IS A 15 TO 45 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING ON
SATURDAY IN THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD.
4. THERE IS A 50 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER RIDGE IS SITUATED OVER CA TODAY WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS, TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AREAS
WHILE A STRATUS DECK PERSISTS OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DUE TO
INVERSION CONDITIONS. THE STRATUS DECK INHIBITED FOG FORMATION
IN MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG BEING NOTED ALONG THE EDGES OF THE VALLEY AND THE
WEST SIDE HILLS. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR
OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE ON
THURSDAY WILL WEAKEN THE INVERSION OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
WHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE STRATUS DECK TO MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SREF IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS
NORCAL ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. NBM IS INDICATING A A 15
TO 45 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING ON SATURDAY IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD. UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD WITH SNOW LEVELS PROGGED TO RANGE
FROM 7000 TO 8000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING PREVAILING OVER
CENTRAL CA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHICH WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. A
STRONGER WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
CA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR
AREA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TO THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ALL RAIN IN THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL MINIMIZE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY
TRAVEL. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES INLAND INTO
CENTRAL CA.
AVIATION
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS, WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH
AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND MIST/HAZE. LOCAL LIFR IN FOG
BETWEEN 12Z THU AND 18Z THU.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 18 2024,
FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS
REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING
DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, AND MERCED COUNTIES, AND KERN
(GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...DAS
IDSS...EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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