553
FXUS66 KHNX 200020 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
420 PM PST THU DEC 19 2024
UPDATE
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY FRIDAY.
2. THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
3. THERE IS A 15 TO 45 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING ON
MONDAY IN THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD.
4. THERE IS A 50 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH PERSISTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THAT TIME. THE VALLEY
CURRENTLY HAS A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD, WHICH IS
EITHER GOING TO STAY IN PLACE, OR CLEAR AND GIVE WAY TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE MORNING FOG. THE PROBABILITY FOR
VISIBILITIES BELOW 0.25 MILES IS 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
MORNING FOR THE WHOLE VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM UP
TOMORROW AND INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL (IN THE MID TO HIGH 60'S FOR THE VALLEY).
SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT COOLING AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH THAT DAY. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH IT'S PASSAGE, ESPECIALLY ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES. MOVING
TO MONDAY, A TROUGH COMING OFF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHWESTERN STATES, AND MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN MOST
PORTION OF OUR VALLEY, WITH A 15 TO 45 PROBABILITY OF RAIN
ACCUMULATING FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD.
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COME FARTHER SOUTH ON
TUESDAY, CHRISTMAS EVE, AND IMPACT OUR AREA. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN IN THE VALLEY ARE 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. CHANCES FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY ARE
40 TO 65 PERCENT FOR 8 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO BEGIN AROUND 7,500 FEET ON TUESDAY
BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 5,000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA,
AND THE PRECIPITATION WOULD HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS DAY IS A DRY ONE, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM. NEXT
THURSDAY, THE DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS, COULD SEE ANOTHER TROUGH
COME THROUGH THE REGION, THOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE REGION WILL GET MORE
PRECIPITATION. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE
VALLEY IS 25 TO 50 PERCENT, INCREASING NORTHWARDS. LONG TERM
MODELS ARE SEEING SIMILAR CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE MONTH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO HOW FAR OUT
THESE FORECASTS ARE GOING.
AVIATION
00Z UPDATE:
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS: VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH ROUGHLY 15Z TONIGHT. THEN, 30-40% CHANCES FOR IFR FOR
FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AND 20-30% CHANCES FOR FRESNO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH 19Z. AFTER 19Z, VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON FRIDAY DECEMBER 20 2024, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA,
AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN MERCED COUNTY, AND
KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER....EW/BSO
DSS/PIO.........................DAS
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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