685
FXUS66 KHNX 201141
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
341 AM PST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY
LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
2. THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
3. THERE IS A 20 TO 60 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING ON
SUNDAY IN THE VALLEY FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD.
4. THERE IS A 50 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF RAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
5. THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EIGHT INCHES OR
MORE OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ON TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS 20 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY ON
THURSDAY OVER THE SAME AREA.
6. THERE IS A 35 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60
MPH ALONG THE MOJAVE SLOPES ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT HAS A 20 TO 45 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 45
MPH DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION IS DENSE FOG
OBSERVATIONS SITES AND LOCAL WEATHER CAMERAS ALL SHOWING DENSE
FOG NORTH OF DELANO-PORTERVILLE. THE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE WITH
DENSE FOG UNTIL 10-11 AM. THE DFA LOOKS ON TRACK FOR TIMING AND
COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
THE FOCUS TURNS TO PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY. VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ANY RAIN OF SIGNIFICANCE ON SATURDAY WITH
PROBABILITY OF MEASUREABLE RAIN AT LESS THAN 20 PERCENT NORTH OF
FRESNO.
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG, MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE VALLEY. FRESNO AND NORTH HAS A
PROBABILITY OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT AND SOUTH OF FRESNO 15 TO 30
PERCENT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A FACTOR ALONG WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN.
SUNDAY A WEST TO EAST FLOW LOOKS TO BRING A PROBABILITY OF A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO
THE YOSEMITE PARK REGION WITH A 20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE. SLIM
THREAT ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY IS A SHORT LIVED RIDGE DAY FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WITH A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY, FOG IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY IS A POSSIBILITY IN THE EARLY MORNING.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION
WITH A STRONG SEASONABLE INTENSITY. RUN TO RUN ENSEMBLES OF THE
US AND EUROPEAN OPTIONS BOTH SHOW LITTLE TREND CHANGE FOR GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENT. WHEN LOOKING AT LIQUID PRECIPITATION IN
THE VALLEY HANFORD-VISALIA NORTH HAS A 60 TO 90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH. GOING SOUTH TOWARDS
BAKERSFIELD THE PROBABILITIES REDUCE TO 20 TO 60 PERCENT WITH
THE LOWEST NEAR BAKERSFIELD. THEN FOCUSING ON SIERRA SNOWFALL
THE SNOW LEVEL STARTS OUT ABOVE 8000 FEET ON TUESDAY AND THEN
LOWERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO 5500 FEET. DURING THE PEAK OF THE
SNOW WE WILL LOOK AT THE PROBABILITY OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT 7000
FEET AND ABOVE. THE PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW
RANGES FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT. YET ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS MOJAVE SLOPE WIND. THE LATEST PROBABILITIES WHEN LOOKING AT
60 MPH AND GREATER WIND HAVE NUDGED UP TO 35 PERCENT. LOOKING AT
THE REST OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WE LOOK DOWN TO WIND GREATER
THAN 45 MPH THE PROBABILITY IS 20 TO 45 PERCENT. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE TREND FOR HIGHLIGHT PRODUCTS FOR THIS
EVENT.
THURSDAY BRINGS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. VALLEY RAINFALL PROBABILITY OF 1/10TH OF AN INCH OR MORE
RANGES FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 198 AND 15 TO 30
PERCENT SOUTH WITH THE LOWEST AGAIN AT BAKERSFIELD. SIERRA
SNOWFALL WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 6500 TO 7000 FEET WHEN LOOKING
AT THE PROBABILITIES OF 8 INCHES RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE TRACK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE REGION. THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING (POE) 65 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY IS 75 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE POE RANGES IN GENERAL FROM 25 TO 75 PERCENT. BAKERSFIELD POE
OF 70 IS 65 PERCENT TODAY AND 55 PERCENT ON SATURDAY. THE THREAT
OF BREAKING TODAYS RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 76 DEGREE IS
NEAR ZERO, ALONG WITH TOMORROW 78 DEGREE RECORD ALSO NEAR ZERO.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A COOLING TREND FOR
THE REGION.
THE CPC 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY KEEP ADVERTISING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
PRECIPITATION RANGES FROM ABOVE NORMAL ON THE NORTH END AND
YOSEMITE TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SOUTH OF THE VALLEY
AROUND BAKERSFIELD.
AVIATION
12Z UPDATE:
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS: LIFR/IFR FLIGHT RULES
THROUGH 17-19Z FROM TULARE NORTH AND MVFR VSBY SOUTH. POST 19Z
VFR WITH MVFR VSBY. AFT 08Z LOOK FOR INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
IFR WITH MOST AREAS HAVING A PROBABILITY OF 40 TO 60 PERCENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBFL.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/19/2024 14:56
EXPIRES: 12/20/2024 23:59
ON FRIDAY DECEMBER 20 2024, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA,
AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN MERCED COUNTY, AND
KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ301>303-
305>307-309>312-314-315.
OPERATIONS...PROTON
DSS..........JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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