217
FXUS66 KHNX 210509 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
910 PM PST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.
2. THERE IS A 15 TO 35 PROBABILITY OF ANY RAIN ACCUMULATING
THIS WEEKEND IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM FRESNO NORTHWARD.
3. THERE IS A 50 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
4. THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EIGHT INCHES OR
MORE OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ON TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS 20 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY ON
THURSDAY OVER THE SAME AREA.
5. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH ALONG THE MOJAVE SLOPES ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT HAS A 10 TO 35 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 45
MPH DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OVERNIGHT
AND PERSISTED IN MUCH OF THE VALLEY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY
IMAGERY IS INDICATING THE FOG IS FINALLY DISSIPATING WITH NOTED
IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY NOTED ON THE EAST AIDE AND SOUTH END
OF THE VALLEY. SREF IS INDICATING THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS OUR AREA, SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS OUR AREA BEING PULLED UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
PAC NW COAST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS
THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OR MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES. IN THE MEANTIME, SOME
AREAS OF FOG MIGHT REFORM IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
EVENING, BUT THE LOW TO OUR NORTH MIGHT PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH
MIXING TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION LIKE WE HAD IN OUR
AREA THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FOG AT THIS TIME.
SREF IS SHOWING CHANCES OF SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM NORTH OF OUR AREA
FROM FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY WITH QPF PROGS
INDICATING A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION
FOR THE YOSEMITE AREA AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE WITH AREAS SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY
REMAINING DRY. NBM IS INDICATING A 15 TO 35 PROBABILITY OF ANY
RAIN ACCUMULATING THIS WEEKEND IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM
FRESNO NORTHWARD.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH CLOUDS TO
INHIBIT FOG FROM FORMING IN THE VALLEY ON SATRUDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING ACROSS OUR
AREA.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY
WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA BETWEEN
TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY EVENING. NBM IS INDICATING A 50 TO
90 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND A 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF EIGHT
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA AS
WELL AS A 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH
ALONG THE MOJAVE SLOPES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE TO THE
EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING PREVAILING OVER OUR AREA FOR A DRY CONDITIONS AND MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. NBM IS INDICATING ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
06Z UPDATE:
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS: MAINLY IFR UNTIL 18Z SAT,
WITH AREAS OF LIFR IN FOG. AFTER 18Z SAT, MAINLY MVFR IN MIST AND
HAZE WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MIST AND HAZE.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
KERN COUNTY DESERT REMAINS VFR FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON SATURDAY DECEMBER 21 2024, UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING
FOR ALL IN KERN COUNTY. NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO,
MADERA, AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS AND
MERCED COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...DAS/BSO
IDSS..............AS/EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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