239
FXUS66 KHNX 212157
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
157 PM PST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A DUSTING OF SNOW ABOVE
7,000 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TIOGA PASS AND TUOLUMNE
MEADOWS HAVE A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OR MORE OF
SNOW.
2. TUESDAY HAS A 45 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCE OF A QUARTER INCH
OF RAIN OR MORE FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTH OF BAKERSFIELD.
3. THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW OR
MORE ABOVE 7,000 FEET IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SAW DENSE FOG ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING,
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AT A QUARTER MILE VISIBILITY OR LESS
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VALLEY. DUE TO THE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, CHANCES OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING DROP SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
NORTHERN AREAS SEEING VISIBILITIES LOWER THAN A QUARTER MILE.
THIS TROUGH WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH TIOGA
PASS AND TUOLUMNE MEADOWS HAVING A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW WHILE THE REST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA
COULD SEE A DUSTING.
A STRONGER TROUGH WILL DIP FURTHER SOUTH AND INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA, MAKING OUR CHRISTMAS EVE A WET ONE. AS OF RIGHT NOW MODEL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION STARTING MONDAY EVENING,
CONTINUING THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE, AND ENDING VERY EARLY ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, WITH MANY AREAS NORTH OF BAKERSFIELD SEEING A 45
PERCENT CHANCE OF A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE, WITH THOSE
CHANCES INCREASING AS YOU GO NORTHWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE SIERRA NEVADA,
PARTICULARLY ABOVE 7,000 FEET. THERE IS A 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 8 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE ABOVE THIS ELEVATION. THE TIMING OF
THIS SNOW, WHICH IS THE SAME AS THE TIMING WITH THE RAIN, COULD
CREATE AN ISSUE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS, SO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR ANY WINTER HEADLINES AND PLAN FOR POSSIBLE DELAYS AND ROAD
CLOSURES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS: MAINLY IFR UNTIL 19Z
SAT, WITH AREAS OF LIFR IN FOG. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY,
MAINLY VFR TO MVFR IN MIST AND HAZE. AFTER 06Z SUNDAY, THERE IS
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS RETURNING
WITH FOG IN NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.
IN THE HIGH SIERRA/FOOTHILLS, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z DUE TO SHOWERS AND CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
KERN COUNTY DESERT AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS REMAINS VFR FOR THE
24 HOUR PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/20/2024 15:21
EXPIRES: 12/21/2024 23:59
ON SATURDAY DECEMBER 21 2024, UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING
FOR ALL IN KERN COUNTY. NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO,
MADERA, AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS AND
MERCED COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...AS
PIO/IDSS..........AB
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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