913
FXUS66 KHNX 271040
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU MAR 27 2025
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION AND KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOLING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEM.
2. LATER TODAY, A DEEP TROUGH WILL EDGE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND USHER IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE
CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA. THERE IS A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 24
HOUR SNOWFALL OF 0.5 INCH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF YOSEMITE
NATIONAL PARK ENDING 11 AM FRIDAY.
3. WINDS REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE MOJAVE SLOPES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS
TO EXCEED 50 MPH EACH DAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER WARM AND CLEAR DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH CONTINUED
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE
TO A RIDGE RETAINING INFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
A STORM SYSTEM SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS PUSHING IN COOLER MARINE AIR THROUGH PACHECO PASS, ON THE
WESTERN BORDER OF MERCED COUNTY. THIS AIR IS CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME COOLER TO THE NORTH OF FRESNO, WHILE
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF FRESNO REMAIN WARMER.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND THROUGH TOMORROW,
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH FRIDAY, THOUGH THE MAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON
THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
CALM AGAIN. THE TIME PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS IS LIKELY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY AS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM
THURSDAY THROUGH 5 PM SATURDAY WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
EXPECTED AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THE ADVISORY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALONG WITH THE WINDS ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR CWA, WITH THE VALLEY LIKELY RETURNING TO THE UPPER
60'S BY FRIDAY AND STAYING CONSISTENT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH MAY BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION, THOUGH RIGHT NOW MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE A SHALLOWER TROUGH THAT MAY DROP A LIGHT
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OF SNOW
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AT 40 TO 60 PERCENT ON MONDAY.
FURTHER INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT
COMES TO NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS A STRONG TROUGH
COMING IN OFF THE COAST AND BRINGING IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE, WITH EVEN THE CPC PUTTING A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN FOR THE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS AND A MODERATE RISK OF HEAVY
SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA, ALL ON APRIL 2ND NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
THE EUROPEAN MODEL HAS THE TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT BASIN
AND MUCH SHALLOWER COMPARED TO THE GFS. GIVEN THIS DISPARITY,
CERTAINTY IS LOW WHEN IT COMES TO A POTENTIAL SYSTEM NEXT
WEDNESDAY, MODEL RUNS WOULD NEED TO CONVERGE SO CERTAINTY CAN
INCREASE.
AVIATION
12Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR UNTIL AROUND 21Z THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY
15-25KTS FOR MUCH OF THE SJ VALLEY. WESTERLY WINDS 20-30KTS WITH
GUSTS 40-50 KTS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES IN
EASTERN KERN COUNTY AFTER 21Z THURSDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CAZ338.
EW/BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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