527
FXUS66 KHNX 300500 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1000 PM PDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY ALONG THE SIERRA
AND TEHACHAPI FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A 30 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR GREATER THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IN THESE AREAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
* ELEVATED WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MOJAVE SLOPES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
* PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH 40-80%
PROBS OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WITH THE USUAL NORTH TO SOUTH DECREASE IN
LIKELIHOOD.
* A RETURN TO SNOW IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH >60%
PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 6KFT. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF YOSEMITE COULD SEE UP TO 18 INCHES, THOUGH A
FOOT OF SNOW IS MOST LIKELY.
* THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK. BUT THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
A BROAD LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN
SOME MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE EXITING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO FIND A SOLID FOOTING WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT THE KEY MESSAGE ISN'T CHANGING...PRECIP IS
COMING TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY.
BY MIDWEEK THINGS GET MORE VARIANT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THE GFS ENSEMBLE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM THE OTHER ENSEMBLES RESULTING IN NEARLY OPPOSITE SOLUTIONS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR THIS REASON, WILL CONTINUE THE NBM
SOLUTION.
AVIATION
06Z UPDATE: INCREASING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH -SHRA INTO THE SJ VALLEY 12Z-18Z SUNDAY WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR DUE TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AND PRECIPITATION FROM 12Z SUNDAY ONWARD.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR CAZ323-326-327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR CAZ328>331.
MEADOWS/EW/BSO/SM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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