656
FXUS66 KHNX 011107
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
407 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
* PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH ONLY EASTERN KERN COUNTY NOT SEEING 100%
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EASTERN KERN COUNTY
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 60% OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO 25% ALONG
THE COUNTY LINE.
* MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH 1-3 FEET OF SNOW IN MARIPOSA, MADERA, AND FRESNO (NORTH
OF THE KINGS RIVER) COUNTIES AND UP TO 10 INCHES IN FRESNO,
SOUTH OF THE KINGS RIVER, AND TULARE COUNTIES.
* WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR SIERRA NORTH OF THE KINGS
RIVER AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTH OF THE RIVER.
* SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP ON TUESDAY FROM 6KFT TO 3500 FT, THOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE SNOW LEVELS
DROP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO 3500 FT WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
* STRONG WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
SIERRA CREST, THE LEE SLOPES OF KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND THE
KERN DESERT. 80% PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 70 MPH MAX GUST
ON TUESDAY FOR MOJAVE.
* HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE LEE SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN DESERT.
DISCUSSION
WE HAVE A TROUGH SLIDING INTO CALIFORNIA SLOWLY TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS TROUGH IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE VALLEY AND
SNOW TO THE SIERRA NEVADA. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW EXPECTED
AND 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA SOUTH
OF THE KINGS RIVER. IN THE VALLEY, WE ARE LOOKING AT A 45 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAIN TOTAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE FOOTHILLS HAVING A 30 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN.
THIS TROUGH ALSO IS BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE MOJAVE SLOPES
AND DESERT DUE TO THE POSITIONING WHICH FAVORS DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT WHICH INCREASES WIND SPEEDS. A HIGH
WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEE SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE KERN DESERT
THROUGH 5 AM WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF MAX
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 70 MPH IN MOJAVE ON TUESDAY FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
A RIDGE SLIDES IN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY HAS A 35
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 80S
AGAIN. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOKS HAVE A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND GOES
FROM A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION TO
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
12Z UPDATE: ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WILL SEE -SHRA WITH A 15%-20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TS
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AND -RA CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY.
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS, WIDESPREAD
IFR WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING LIFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERT, STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOJAVE SLOPES FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY AND
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ338.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ323-326-
327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ328>331.
JPK/BSO/SM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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