792
FXUS66 KHNX 011815
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1115 AM PDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
* PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ONLY EASTERN KERN COUNTY NOT SEEING
100% PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. EASTERN KERN COUNTY
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM 60% OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO 25% ALONG
THE COUNTY LINE.
* MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW
IN MARIPOSA, MADERA, AND FRESNO (NORTH OF THE KINGS RIVER)
COUNTIES AND UP TO 10 INCHES IN FRESNO, SOUTH OF THE KINGS
RIVER, AND TULARE COUNTIES.
* SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER TODAY FROM 6000 FEET TO 3500 FEET THIS
EVENING, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR
BEFORE THE SNOW LEVELS DROP. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DOWN TO
3500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
* STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT AREAS. THERE IS AN 80%
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 70 MPH MAXIMUM GUST TODAY FOR
MOJAVE.
* A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
A COLD UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE CA/OR BORDER MOVING
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACROSS OUR
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. RADAR COMPOSITES ARE SHOWING MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWFA WHICH WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK IS SHOWING
MUCH OF MERCED COUNTY HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWFA IN
THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA. THE OTHER WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THIS TIME INCLUDE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA NEVADA
WHICH WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW LEVEL
LOWERING FROM 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 3500 FEET BY
THE TIME SHOWERS TAPER OFF TONIGHT. ANOTHER CONCERN IS ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG WINDS IN EASTERN KERN COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A POE OF WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 MPH IN MOJAVE OF 80 PERCENT
THIS EVENING.
THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
PREVAILING ACROSS OUR AREA AND CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BOTH
DAYS. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS SHOWING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
TAKING PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY SATURDAY. THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE CPC 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK
SHOWING A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
18Z:
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS, VFR
PREVAILING WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND
LOCAL IFR IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THRU 04Z WED. LOCAL MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 04Z WED AND 18Z WED.
OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND TEHACHAPI
MOUNTAINS, WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR IN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION THRU 18Z WED.
FOR THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, VFR
PREVAILING ALTHOUGH SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES THRU 12Z WED.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ338.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ323-
326-327.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ328>331.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...DAS
IDSS...JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page