823
FXUS66 KHNX 212311 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
412 PM PDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SLIGHT CHANCE (10%-20%) OF HIGH SIERRA NEVADA AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
2. WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND STARTING MID-WEEK AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
4. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
A HIGH PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 85 DEGREES
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK AND THEN TAPERS-OFF LATER IN
THE WEEK. POE OF 85 DEGREES OR GREATER WILL RANGE FROM 70%-90%
THROUGH TUESDAY AND LOWER TO LESS THEN 20% BY THURSDAY. CURRENT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM KSFO TO KLAS SITS AT AROUND 3MB.
THIS TRANSLATES INTO LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. UNTIL THE
DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE REGION, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. COOLING WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES
(AROUND 75 DEGREES) BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONGER RANGE UPPER-AIR ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS IS LEANING TOWARD THE
INTRODUCTION OF A TROUGH PATTERN NEAR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS VERY UNLIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS HAVE A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING. LONGER RANGE TEMPERATURES POE
ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A 50% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 75
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. WITH POE OF SEEING EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH OF A GOOD COOL-DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME, POE FOR WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS PERCENTAGES RISE
TO 40%-60% DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THE
MOMENT, SUNDAY WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
BEFORE A TRANSITION BACK TO WARMING CLOSER TO DAY-8 (MONDAY).
AVIATION
00Z:
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA CREST UNTIL TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THRU THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA/BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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