002
FXUS66 KHNX 221833
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1133 AM PDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SLIGHT CHANCE (10%-20%) OF HIGH SIERRA NEVADA AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
2. WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND STARTING MID-WEEK AHEAD
OF A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
4. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ANOTHER CLEAR DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR PEAK VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE MAINTAIN A GOOD
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 85 DEGREES (40%-60%)
ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. YET, SHORT TERM ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE START OF A COOL-DOWN WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THAN,
RIDGING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS
AREA WITH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA. POE OF
POSSIBLE LIGHTNING IS AROUND 10%-20% THIS AFTERNOON AND CENTERED
AROUND MOUNT WHITNEY AND SPREADING TOWARD FRESNO COUNTY
(MOUNTAINS). THEREFORE, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE, CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED TO THE SIERRA CREST.
LONGER RANGE UPPER-AIR ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS IS LEANING TOWARD THE
INTRODUCTION OF A TROUGH PATTERN NEAR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS VERY UNLIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE. CURRENT
POE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SITS AT 30%-40% FROM MERCED
COUNTY TOWARD YOSEMITE NP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND 30%-50% ON
SATURDAY WITH NEAR 50% FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR YOSEMITE.
THEREFORE, WHILE CONFIDENCE ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS
GROWING, VALLEY RAIN STILL HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER IN HAVING DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS
LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LONGER RANGE TEMPERATURES
POE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A 50% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING 75
DEGREES ON SATURDAY. WITH POE OF SEEING EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A GOOD COOL-DOWN BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE
SAME TIME, POE FOR WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE AS PERCENTAGES RISE
TO 40%-60% DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. AT THE
MOMENT, SUNDAY WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
BEFORE A TRANSITION BACK TO WARMING BY NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION
18Z:
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CRESTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA ARE
POSSIBLE (10%-20%) THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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