877
FXUS66 KHNX 241111 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
411 AM PDT THU APR 24 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A SLIGHT CHANCE (10%-20%) OF HIGH SIERRA NEVADA AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A COOLING TREND AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
3. WINTER-LIKE WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED.
4. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT
FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS NOW UPON THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR AS A DISTURBANCE TRAVERSED NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE A
FEW SHOWERS MANAGED TO EXTEND SOUTH INTO MERCED COUNTY
OVERNIGHT, SOME CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES DOMINATED
THE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER. IN ADDITION, THE COOLER ONSHORE AIR
IS ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN KERN COUNTY WINDS AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES OF THE
TEHACHAPI RANGE. WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF COOLING AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
COOLING TREND AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL START THE SHORT TERM
AS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 85 DEGREES DROPS
TO BELOW 30% IN THE COMING DAYS. BY SATURDAY, POE OF REACHING 75
DEGREES IS BELOW 10% ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS DROP
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN BY SATURDAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
AS THE STORM EXITS LATER IN THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURE BEGIN A
REBOUND AND RISE TO THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY. THE POE OF MID 80S
JUMPS UP TO A RANGE OF 40%-60% AT THAT TIME. AS A NOTE, POE OF
90 DEGREES SITS AT 50% BY NEXT THURSDAY (IMPLYING THAT THE
WARMING WILL CONTINUE). AS FOR THE WINDS, ENSEMBLE SURFACE WIND
ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN GUSTS OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT AS
SPEEDS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30 MPH RANGE. AT BEST, WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH MAX GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. POE OF
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH SITS AT 20%-35% FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. SATURDAY LOOKS MORE PROMISING WITH POE OF 45 MPH WINDS
SITTING BETWEEN 30%-50%. THEN, A RETURN TO RIDGE WILL DECREASE
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONGER RANGE UPPER-AIR ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS IS LEANING TOWARD THE
INTRODUCTION OF A TROUGH PATTERN THIS WEEKEND. WHILE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS VERY UNLIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY, MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE. CURRENT POE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SITS AT 30%-40% FROM MERCED COUNTY
TOWARD YOSEMITE NP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND 30%-50% ON SATURDAY WITH
NEAR 50% FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR YOSEMITE. THEREFORE,
WHILE CONFIDENCE ON MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION IS GROWING, VALLEY
RAIN STILL HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A THREAT THIS WEEKEND OVER AREAS NORTH OF
KERN/KINGS AND TULARE. THIS THREAT INCLUDES THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY, FOOTHILLS AND SIERRA NEVADA. IN ADDITION, MORE SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SATURDAY WILL LOOK VERY
UNSETTLED. STORM MOVES OUT AROUND SUNDAY WITH RIDGING, DRYING
AND WARMING DOMINATING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
12Z:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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