043
FXUS66 KHNX 261647
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
947 AM PDT SAT APR 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT UNTIL
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MOJAVE
SLOPES.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
THIS WEEKEND THEN TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK.
2. WINTER-LIKE WEATHER TODAY, OR VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW,
WILL BE OBSERVED.
3. A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG THE COAST NEAR PT
CONCEPTION. AT THIS TIME, THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING IN THE VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS,
AS WELL AS SOUTHERN CA. THESE SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD
AND ARE APPROACHING FRESNO. THIS IS A COLD SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED AROUND 5,000 FEET. IT WILL
ALSO PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS, SUFFICIENT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT AM. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE
REGION, BASED ON LATEST BEST/WORST CASE SCENARIO AMOUNTS (OR
ANYWHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TO JUST ABOVE 0.25
INCH IN THE SJ VALLEY). ALSO, AMOUNTS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 INCH TO OVER 1.00 INCH IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW UP TO A FOOT; HOWEVER,
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 1.50 INCHES
(ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE). BY SUNDAY MORNING, SOME LOW CLOUDS
WILL LINGER ABOVE THE CENTRAL VALLEY, THOUGH THE FAVORED AREAS
ARE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY, BEFORE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND BUILDS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY AND
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY UNTIL FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
LOWER BACK TOWARDS NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
THE MOUNTAINS NEXT SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH IT DOESN'T APPEAR QUITE AS
COLD AS THE CURRENT ONE. MORE TO FOLLOW, AS WE GET CLOSER.
CURRENT 6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER, OVERALL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS
PERIODS WITH COOLER OR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF, AS BOTH OF THESE PERIODS
COVER THE EARLY PART OF MAY.
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE:
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WEST SIDE HILLS, AREAS OF MVFR
AND LOCAL IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THRU 12Z SUN. A 15
PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM 19Z SAT TO 03Z
SUN.
ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS, WIDESPREAD
MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, RAIN AND SNOW THRU 18Z
SUN. A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FROM 19Z SAT
TO 03Z SUN.
ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF THE MOJAVE DESERT, EXPECT
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ337-339.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ338.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ323-
325>331-333>336.
BSO/JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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