382
FXUS66 KHNX 140516
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1016 PM PDT TUE MAY 13 2025
UPDATE
AVIATIION SECTION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
1. A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TODAY, WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST INTO THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
2. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES AND
THE KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH 2 AM PDT TONIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED DURING
THAT TIME.
3. COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST TODAY, WITH A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
4. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DURING THIS WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SIERRA CREST AND KERN COUNTY
DESERT.
DISCUSSION
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS OUR REGION. COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY. A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR THE SIERRA TODAY WITH A 15 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOWARDS THE YOSEMITE HIGH COUNTRY AND THE
SIERRA NEVADA CREST MAINLY FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
WITH SOME STORMS.
A ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL FRIDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. THIS
WILL ALSO PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
REDEVELOP IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. AS OF NOW, THE
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS AT LEAST 45 MPH ARE UP TO 80 PERCENT
TOWARD THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES ON SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR GUSTS
THIS STRONG WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, BUT WILL BE A BIT LOWER.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS BY NEXT TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS GIVEN OUR
RECENT CHANGING PATTERN THAT IS TYPICAL OF SPRING, AS WELL AS
THE HISTORY OF STRONG RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE NOT LASTING OVER
OUR AREA FOR LONGER THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS AT A TIME SO FAR THIS
SPRING. EVENTUALLY, THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER US AND
PERSIST LONGER.
AVIATION
06Z UPDATE:
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT UNTIL 09Z WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 05/13/2025 14:58
EXPIRES: 05/14/2025 23:59
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ337>339.
PUBLIC...BSO/MOLINA
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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