667
FXUS66 KHNX 151751
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1051 AM PDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
UNTIL FRIDAY.
2. A COOLDOWN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND PEAKS, AS WELL AS THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.
3. A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
4. INCREASED WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A RISK FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
5. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION TODAY. A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WARM DAYS ARE IN STORE
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. EXPECT A GENERALLY BENIGN PATTERN IN
THE SHORT-TERM.
FOR THE WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER NORTHERN CA
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER, AND THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER MAINLY THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO
RAMP UP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT. A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS LAUNCHED FOR THE DESERT ZONES FOR
THIS WEEKEND, AS GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH ARE PROJECTED, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS ALONG THE WIND-PRONE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES. A 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF A GUST AT LEAST 55 MPH IS SHOWN OVER MUCH OF
THE SLOPES INTO THE INDIAN WELLS VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND CONFINED TO MAINLY THE SLOPES FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
DAYTIME HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE
GRASS FIRES AND COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO A
WARMER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINS FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 7,000
FEET; HOWEVER, AMOUNTS WILL BE PERHAPS A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH.
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE LIGHT, OR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS, AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THUS, DRY LIGHTNING
POTENTIAL REMAINS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HIGHS OVER THE
WEEKEND AT THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70'S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
WARMING RETURNS NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WARMER EVEN BY MONDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY, OR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80'S AT THE WARMEST
SPOTS. THE CHANCES OF HIGHS REACHING THE 90'S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK ARE AROUND 60 TO 90 PERCENT FOR BOTH THE
VALLEY AND DESERT AREAS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE
THE PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AND THE CHANCE FOR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT EXISTS FOR NEXT THURSDAY, AT AROUND 15 TO 30 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA (NOW OVER 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY) FOR THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD, PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THUS, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL BE ENTERING A MORE PROLONGED SUMMER-
LIKE PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH.
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ338.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR CAZ337-339.
BSO/SM
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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