945
FXUS66 KHNX 170502
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1002 PM PDT FRI MAY 16 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION AND AIR QUALITY UPDATES
KEY MESSAGES
1. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL TODAY.
2. A COOLDOWN OCCURS THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY WINDS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND PEAKS, AS WELL AS THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
STRONGER.
3. A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA ON SATURDAY.
4. INCREASED WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A RISK FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
5. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER OUR PORTION OF CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, THOUGH NOT UNSEASONABLE.
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS OCCUR ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER
NORTHERN CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA, THOUGH MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE CHANCES FOR SATURDAY ARE AROUND
10-15 PERCENT, WHILE SUNDAY'S HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 5-10
PERCENT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EVEN LIGHTER FOR SATURDAY, OR
UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP THIS
WEEKEND IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT AND OVER THE RIDGES AND PEAKS
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST, WITH THE HIGHEST IMPACTS LIKELY
AT THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES (INCLUDING MOJAVE). IN ADDITION, THE
RISK FOR LARGE GRASS FIRES EXISTS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FOR
THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOWER HUMIDITY WITH THE STRONGER WINDS. WINDS ON
MONDAY WON'T BE QUITE AS STRONG, BUT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP DAYTIME HUMIDITY LOW. SO, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR GRASS FIRES ON THAT DAY AS
WELL.
ENJOY THE MILD, MORE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES WHILE THEY LAST,
AS A LONGER PERIOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES COMMENCES
TUESDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE REST OF NEXT
WEEK. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS IN THE 90'S IN THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ARE AT A MINIMUM OF 70 TO 90 PERCENT FOR TUESDAY
UNTIL AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BECOMES A
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY, INCLUDING IN BOTH THE SJ
VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT, OR AT 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE. OTHER
LOCATIONS BESIDES KERN COUNTY COULD SEE THEIR FIRST TRIPLE
DIGIT DAY FOR THIS YEAR BY THEN. WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS ARE A BIT LOWER FOR NEXT FRIDAY (ABOUT 10-30%,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN THE DESERT), SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
COULD PERSIST FOR QUITE SOME TIME, BASED ON THE LATEST 6-10 AND
8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER, WITH A
PROBABILITY OF ABOVE 50 TO 60 PERCENT OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
6Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 05/16/2025 12:53
EXPIRES: 05/17/2025 23:59
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR
CAZ338.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ337-
339.
PUBLIC...BSO
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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