575
FXUS66 KHNX 030503
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1003 PM PDT WED JUL 2 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STEADY TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY
DESERT. A POSSIBLE COOLING TREND IS INDICATED IN THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
2. DRYNESS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH
STEADY MINIMUM RH'S IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE RISK LOW.
3. THERE IS A SLIGHT (10-20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION AND ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS OF THIS MORNING, CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING-UP
OVER SAN BERNARDINO AND INYO COUNTIES. WILL EXPECT THE MOISTURE
SURGE TO MAKE ITS WAY UP ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST WITH A
CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM YOSEMITE
DOWN TO TULARE AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WILL NOT EXPECT
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO EFFECT TEMPERATURES OR WINDS IN THE
SHORT TERM AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURE
VALUES AND LIGHT DIURNAL AFTERNOON BREEZES THROUGH THURSDAY.
FRIDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE WIND DESERT WINDS.
TO START, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF THUNDER (POT) WILL GROW TO
NEARLY 25% THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA. ELSEWHERE,
POT WILL REMAIN AT NEAR ZERO VALUES AS ENSEMBLE INSTABILITY MEAN
FAVORS THE SIERRA NEVADA CREST THIS AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY, THE
POSITION OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIGHT MORE INLAND AND NOT
FAVORING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR (I.E. THE SIERRA
NEVADA). THEREFORE, AFTERNOON TODAY, CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
WILL MARK WEAK WITH POT OF LESS THAN 10%.
TEMPERATURES WILL START A SLOW COOLING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY AS PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING
100 DEGREES DROPS TO LESS THAN 10% AS MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL VALUES OF MID 90S. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES, TRIPLE
DIGITS WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT MONDAY WHEN THE POE GOES
ABOVE 20%. THESE LOW PERCENTAGES TRANSLATE IN MAX TEMPERATURES
NOT GOING MUCH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AS POE OF 105 DEGREES REMAINS
AT NEAR ZERO PROBABILITY FOR THE PERIOD (SEVEN DAYS).
WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE DURING THE NEXT THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WITH COOLING WILL BE OBSERVED ON FRIDAY. AT
THAT TIME, POE OF WIND GUSTS REACHING 45 MPH SITS BETWEEN 50%
AND 75%. THE HIGHER END PERCENTAGES REPRESENT THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT(EASTERN MOJAVE SLOPES). THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE THE RANGES OF 20% TO 40% FOR SPEEDS
OF 45 MPH. YET, FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH, POE WILL RANGE FROM
60% TO 80% ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY,
EXCLUDING BAKERSFIELD, A GOOD PORTION THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS
AND THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 5000 FEET. AFTERWARD, THE
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR DIMINISHING WINDS
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
AVIATION
06Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION.....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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