211
FXUS66 KHNX 300601
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
2. A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA TODAY.
DISCUSSION
THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE PATTERN WITH A DISTURBANCE OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST HAS ALLOWED FOR THE EASTWARD PUSH OF
MONSOONAL OUT OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH THE WIND FLOW IN A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION, PRECIP-WATER IS BEING CUT-OFF FROM THE
GULF REGION AS SOME VALUES DROP-OFF. WHILE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION, WILL EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
SLOWLY FADE AS PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF OBSERVING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY REMAINS BELOW 10%. IN ADDITION, THE FLATNESS
OF THE RIDGE PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. THE RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO WIN OUT AND REBUILD
OVER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND THE HEAT RETURNS.
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES STARTS
LOW AND PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES THROUGH MONDAY. AT THAT POINT,
MUCH OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IS SHOWING POE OF REACHING 100
DEGREES IN THE 90% RANGE. POE THEN TAPERS OFF AROUND WEDNESDAY
AND LOWERS TO AROUND 30% VALLEY-WIDE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALSO OF NOTE, POE OF REACHING 105 DEGREES NEVER GOES ABOVE 20%
DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
MOISTURE-WISE, ENSEMBLE SHOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AWAY FROM CALIFORNIA. BY MONDAY, THE RIDGE
PATTERN REBOUND AS MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN TRANSPORTED TOWARD
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE MEAN 1 INCH LINE DOES NOT RETURN TO KERN
COUNTY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SURGING IN ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, WILL KEEP MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK (CLOSER TO FRIDAY).
FURTHERMORE, WHILE THE RIDGE MAINTAINS IT GRIP ON THE WEST
COAST, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
AVIATION
06Z UPDATE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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