873
FXUS66 KHNX 020548
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1048 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS CHANCES FOR TRIPLE-DIGITS
SIT AT AROUND 80-100 PERCENT TODAY. SLIGHT COOLING TREND AS
MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION. BETTER COOLING BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
2. A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20 PERCENT) FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SIERRA NEVADA ON TUESDAY. GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND
MID-WEEK.
3. MARGINAL (AT LEAST 5 PERCENT) RISK OF FLOODING IN THE VERY
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY LOSE ITS GRIP
AS SHOWERS AND COOLER CONDITIONS INVADE THE AREA. WHILE STILL
THE DOMINATE FEATURE, TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL RISE
ABOVE THE TRIPLE-DIGIT MARK AS WIDESPREAD VALUES RANGE FROM 100
TO 106 DEGREES ACROSS THE VALLEY. A HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT FOR THE HOT DAY AHEAD OF COOLING EXPECTED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
CHANGE IS ON THE WAY AS DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL
FIRST DRAW IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE DISTRICT AND THEN
SHIFT THAT MOISTURE EASTWARD. THEREFORE, THE BEST CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON TUESDAY, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A STRONG
AND DEEPER DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND
INTRODUCE BETTER DRYING AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING.
IN THE MEANWHILE, THE DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL
ONLY PROVIDE SLIGHT COOLING AS INDICATED IN ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDANCE (POE) OF REACHING 100 DEGREES. IT’S NOT UNTIL
FRIDAY THAT POE OF REACHING 100 DEGREES DROPS BELOW 50 PERCENT.
THEREFORE, WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND GOING
BELOW BY SUNDAY.
LASTLY, ENSEMBLE PRECIP-WATER (PW) ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ONSET OF
1 INCH PW APPROACHING KERN COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. PROBABILITIES
“WORST CASE SCENARIO” COULD PLACE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH OF
RAIN OVER THE CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA NEAR MT. WHITNEY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FLOW OF THE STORM MAY NOT ALLOW FOR
LONG-DURATION “LINGERING” STORM OVER THE AREA, THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE, WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK” GUIDANCE FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF A AREAL FLOOD
WATCH TO CAPTURE THOSE ISOLATED SPOTS WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS.
AVIATION
06Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 18Z TUESDAY, THERE IS A 15 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND SLOPES.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ327>334-337>339.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ300>317-319-
321.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....JPK/MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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