663
FXUS66 KHNX 022314
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
414 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST TODAY AND TOMORROW
ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS, WITH A 15 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND A 15 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY. THESE
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL AND RESULT IN DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
2. THERE IS AT LEAST A 5% CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS INTO THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERT TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A
FLOOD WATCH OF THOSE REGIONS.
3. MODERATE HEAT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE VALLEY AND MOJAVE DESERT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A 40 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN
BRINGING IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT TO LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, WHICH WERE
FAST MOVING CELLS THAT QUICKLY EXITED OUR CWA. CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 15 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA
MOUNTAINS, AND A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SLIGHTLY DECREASE TOMORROW, THOUGH CHANCES OF 15 TO 25
PERCENT REMAIN IN THE SIERRA NEVADA THAT AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FALL OFF BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
CHANCES OF ONLY 5 TO 15 PERCENT.
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PUT A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST
5%) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA AND INTO THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND KERN MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TOMORROW, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ON THURSDAY. DUE TO THIS RISK TODAY, A FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT, AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE LIKELY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A 40 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE OF THOSE TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
THIS RESULTS IN A MOSTLY MODERATE HEAT RISK WITH SOME AREAS OF
MAJOR HEAT RISK IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE VALLEY
APPROACHING THE FOOTHILLS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE VALLEY. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HEAT
RISK BECOMING MOSTLY MINOR ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
0Z UPDATE:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SLOPES THROUGH 06Z WED.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR CAZ327>334-337>339.
PUBLIC...EW
AVIATION....JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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