631
FXUS66 KHNX 020812
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
112 AM PDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. IN
12 HOURS ENDING 5 PM FRIDAY, THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR 0.10 INCH FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA NORTH OF KERN
COUNTY.
2. COOLER AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY WILL CAUSE AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT TIOGA PASS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR A
TRACE OR MORE OF SNOWFALL THROUGH 5 PM FRIDAY.
3. THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR 80 DEGREES IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN COUNTY DESERT TODAY BEFORE
FALLING TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL
BRING INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND.
4. THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 MPH FOR THE TOWN OF MOJAVE AND STATE
ROUTES 14 AND 58 ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD A LITTLE BIT TODAY, THOUGH WILL
BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS SUCH AS MERCED AND
MARIPOSA COUNTIES. NOTICEABLE COOLING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE BY
FRIDAY, AS TEMPERATURES LOWER TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
IN THE MEANTIME, THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ARRIVE IN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES,
AS WELL AS YOSEMITE LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
SHIFT SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TOWARDS KERN COUNTY
(MAINLY SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY INTO THE MOUNTAINS) DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM, FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
LEVELS IN THE SIERRA WILL BE OVER 10,000 FEET TODAY AND LOWER TO
8,000 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, INCLUDING FROM YOSEMITE TO
TULARE COUNTY. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE (40-70%) OF REACHING AN INCH AND A LOWER PROBABILITY
(25-50%) FOR AT LEAST TWO INCHES. AS FOR RAINFALL, THERE IS A
LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY (30-50% CHANCE) FOR AT LEAST A TENTH
OF AN INCH IN OUR NORTHERN PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
AND WILL RISE TO 65-80 PERCENT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA BY EARLY
FRIDAY. AREAS THAT HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.50 INCH
INCLUDE THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS FOR FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD. THE RECENT BURN SCARS IN THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED, AS BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF
SOME STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN TO PASS OVER THESE
AREAS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY (60-70% CHANCE OF GUSTS AT LEAST
45 MPH) ALONG THE MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. FOR SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH NO
SIGNIFICANT RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS HAVE
BEEN PROJECTING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S., AS WELL AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC,
INCLUDING ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, FOR THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IF WE RECEIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE.
AVIATION
MVFR CIGS WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA TOWARDS MCE AND MER
AND INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA TOWARDS YOSEMITE NP, SPREADING
SOUTHWARD AFTER 00Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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