133
FXUS66 KHNX 070912
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
212 AM PDT TUE OCT 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES TODAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.
2. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT AND VALLEY
AREAS AND A 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA.
3. COOLER AIR WITH THE SYSTEM BRINGS A 15 TO 25 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 10000 FEET.
4. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS ALONG THE CRESTS OF THE SIERRA HAVE A 40
TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 40 MPH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
A SLIGHT WARMUP IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SITS OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST, CAUSING WARMER AIR TO
ENCROACH ON OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A 50 TO 60
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR TEMEPRATURES TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, WITH THESE TEMPERATURES
AROUND FIVE DEGREES WARMER THAN SEASON AVERAGES. MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS
AND TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HOWEVER, AS THURSDAY
APPROACHES, CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, CAUSING STRONGER WINDS TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS STATED IN LAST NIGHTS DISCUSSION,
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT HURRICANE PRISCILLA
WILL BE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO REDIRECT
THE MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION, WITH MINIMAL
MOISTURE MAKING IT TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS BEING SAID, THERE
REMAINS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
IN THE MOJAVE DESERT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE FROM BOTH SYSTEMS ALSO HAS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THE CENTRAL SIERRA. WITH COOLER AIR
ASSOICATED WITH THE NORTHERLY SYSTEM, THERE IS A 15 TO 25
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IN THE
CENTRAL SIERRA, MAINLY ABOVE 10000 FEET. COOLER AIR WILL ALSO
ENTRAIN ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S, AROUND TEN DEGREES BELOW SEASON AVERAGES. WHILE
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, STRONGER
WINDS WILL MOVE OVER THE SIERRA CRESTS, WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 40 MPH ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
NONE.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page