117
FXUS66 KHNX 010925
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
225 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG THIS MORNING IN THE CENTRAL SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, WITH A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN ONE MILE.
2. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES.
3. SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION NEXT WEDNESDAY BRINGING
VALLEY RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND INCREASED GUSTS IN THE DESERT
AREAS.
DISCUSSION
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO TO
THREE DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO STALL OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS PATTERN IS DRIVING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, WE ARE GRADUALLY LOSING
THE MOISTURE FROM OUR LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE 22ND
OF THE MONTH, CAUSING FOG TO BE LESS LIKELY; HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS GIVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN
ONE MILE FOR SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS. A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP MOVING INTO THE EARLY
WEEK PERIOD, SETTING UP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN
CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH CLUSTER ENSEMBLES COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT FOR
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO DROP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM THE
GULF OF ALASKA. HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS
LESS CERTAIN AMONG THE CLUSTERS, WITH 35 PERCENT OF MEMBERS
EXPRESSING A MORE SHALLOW TROUGH ORIENTED TOWARDS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA, BUT WITH 25 PERCENT OF MEMBERS SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH DIRECTED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, AND
STILL ANOTHER 25 PERCENT OF MEMBERS SHOWING A SHALLOWER TROUGH
CENTERED IN OUR AREA. ALL THIS SAID, THERE IS AT LEAST A 40
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
OVER 24 HOURS ENDING 4 AM THURSDAY IN FRESNO COUNTY, WITH
PROBABILITIES UP TO 70 PERCENT NORTH OF FRESNO, BUT ONLY UP TO
30 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 7000-8000' WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO RESULT IN SNOW
ABOVE THESE LEVELS, WITH A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ONE
INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IN THE CENTRAL SIERRA NEVADA. ELEVATED
WINDS ALSO HAVE AN INCREASED POTENTIAL IN THE MOJAVE DESERT
SLOPES, WITH A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED
40 MPH IN THE TOWN OF MOJAVE, AND FOR CA HIGHWAYS 14, 58, AND
178.
AVIATION
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 16Z SAT. AFTERWARDS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z SUN.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 10/31/2025 13:53
EXPIRES: 11/01/2025 23:59
ON SATURDAY NOVEMBER 1 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA,
AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN MERCED COUNTY, AND
KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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