222
FXUS66 KHNX 020946
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
146 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION THIS WEDNESDAY BRINGING VALLEY
RAIN, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND INCREASED GUSTS IN THE DESERT
AREAS.
2. STABLE CONDITIONS BEFOREHAND WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASON
AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US THIS
MORNING, INCLUDING SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER,
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER OUR AREA, WITH
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. FOR
SUNDAY, EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO THE END OF LAST WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY, AND IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND MOJAVE
DESERT.
LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE AREA OF THE
CHANNEL ISLANDS, THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AFTER THIS PERTURBATION
PASSES THROUGH, A ZONAL PATTERN IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN US, ALBEIT WITH A SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ONE TO TWO DEGREES
FROM SUNDAY; THE VALLEY AND DESERT AREAS OF KERN COUNTY HAVE A
70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 80 DEGREES. STRONGER
WEST-TO-EAST WINDS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL START TO BRING
STRONGER WIND GUST TO THE MOJAVE SLOPES AS WELL, THOUGH ONLY
WITH A 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 40 MPH MONDAY.
TUESDAY'S CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY
COOLER, BUT REMAINING ABOVE SEASON AVERAGES.
THE NEXT PATTERN CHANGE WILL COME WEDNESDAY, WHEN AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IS FAVORABLE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WEAKER SIDE, ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH VALLEY, SOUTHERN SIERRA, AND DESERT AREAS. THERE IS
A 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ONE-TENTH INCH OR MORE IN 24
HOURS ENDING 4 AM THURSDAY FOR MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES, BUT
WITH DECREASING PROBABILITIES FOR THESE AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH.
MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES HAVE A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY
FOR ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH, AND KINGS/TULARE COUNTIES ONLY 10 TO
20 PERCENT.
SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED AT 7500-8000', BUT
WITH THE MOISTURE WITH IT FOCUSING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA, SNOWFALL PROBILITIES ARE AT THEIR GREATEST IN AND
AROUND YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL OVER 24 HOURS ENDING
THURSDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS, BUT FALLING TO 30 TO 40
PERCENT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA IN FRESNO COUNTY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
A 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 3 INCHES IN YOSEMITE,
EXPECT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, WHICH ARE AT 60 TO 70
PERCENT.
WHILE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LESS OF AN IMPACT FOR KERN
COUNTY, THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONGER WINDS GUSTS TO
THE MOJAVE SLOPES, INCLUDING THE TOWN OF MOJAVE AND CALIFORNIA
HIGHWAYS 14, 58, AND 178 ON WEDNESDAY. NBM ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
EXPRESSES A 70 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH, BUT A 30 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 50
MPH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY IN
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL.
AVIATION
40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS OR LOWER AT KVIS FROM
12Z TO 15Z SUN. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z MON.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 11/01/2025 13:27
EXPIRES: 11/02/2025 23:59
ON SUNDAY NOVEMBER 2 2025, UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY. FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING
FOR ALL IN KERN COUNTY. NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO,
KINGS, MADERA, AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN
MERCED COUNTY, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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