937
FXUS66 KHNX 050956
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
156 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. SYSTEM MOVES IN TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTH ON THURSDAY BRINGING
RAIN, SNOW ABOVE 9,000 FEET, AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA.
2. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TODAY THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY.
3. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING UP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
WE HAVE A TROUGH MOVING IN TODAY WHICH IS BRINGING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO SEASONABLE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE
GONE DRIER NOW WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM FRESNO AND POINTS SOUTH. MERCED AND MARIPOSA
REMAIN AT 60 TO 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON UP TO 9,000 FEET. THIS COMBINED WITH LESS
MOISTURE HAS REDUCED THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA. TIOGA PASS HAS A 43 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW
BUT THE PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES OR MORE HAS SHRUNK TO 9 PERCENT
COMPARED TO THE 47 PERCENT IT HAD YESTERDAY FOR THIS STORM.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE MOJAVE SLOPES. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR THE MOJAVE
SLOPES ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AS THERE IS A 65 TO 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF
40 MPH GUSTS TODAY DECREASING TO 25 TO 60 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH LATE TOMORROW AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A RIDGE WHICH WILL BUILD AND STRENGTHEN GREATLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 60 TO 75 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HIGHS OF AT LEAST 80 SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN KERN COUNTY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALSO HAVE A 10 TO
35 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE REST OF THE VALLEY OF HIGHS OF AT
LEAST 80 DEGREES.
LOOKING LONG TERM, THE CPC HAS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IN BOTH THE
6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER, THE OUTLOOKS ALSO SHOW A CHANGE
FROM A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TO A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK. THESE OUTLOOKS
ARE HINTING AT A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE VALLEY BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON TUESDAY NOVEMBER 5, 2025, NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN
FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN
(GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA). BURNING DISCOURAGED IN MERCED
COUNTY, AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ338.
JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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