581
FXUS66 KHNX 261142
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
342 AM PST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES...
1. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FLOODING ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS WITH
CONTINUED RAINFALL. SOILS ARE SATURATED, RESULTING IN EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET, WITH SNOW
LOAD IMPACTS ON ROOFS IN THE HIGH SIERRA CONTINUES. TRAVEL WILL
BE HARD WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
3. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE
JOAQUIN VALLEY.
DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY QUIET CHRISTMAS EVENING IN THE VALLEY
WHILE OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN THE
SIERRA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM
THE CHICO AND SACRAMENTO AREAS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE BAY AREA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, DEGRADING
INTO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE JOAQUIN VALLEY, WHILE
ENHANCING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THIS WILL
STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
MAINTAIN ISOLATED THUNDER AND HEAVIER SUB-HOURLY PRECIP RATES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SNOW LEVELS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS,
THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING IN THE FOOTHILLS DUE TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN WILL LOWER
SNOW LEVELS BY ABOUT 1 KFT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH. HREF PROBABILITIES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
GREATER THAN 2 FEET (AND QPF GREATER THAN 2.5 INCHES) ARE ABOUT
60 PERCENT IN THE HIGH SIERRA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK
FOR SNOW LOAD ON ROOFS INTO FRIDAY. A WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE OCCLUDED LOW OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT FINALLY MOVES INLAND. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALSO SWING THROUGH, ALLOWING SUSTAINED OROGRAPHIC LIFT
TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE FLOW COLLAPSES. A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
BUT WILL BE OF LITTLE ADDITIONAL CONSEQUENCE.
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KICK EAST AND BROAD RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CA. A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
PATTERN WILL UNFOLD WITH NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, AND CLEARING SKIES RETURNING. LATER IN
THE WEEK, AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC MAY LIFT NORTH
TOWARD SOUTHERN CA AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THIS MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW.
AVIATION
SHOWERS WITH SLOWLY INCREASING COVERAGE WERE ONGOING THIS
MORNING FROM FAT TO MCE AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS. DESPITE THE
SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR AREAS
FROM VIS AND NORTH. A BREAK IS ANTICIPATED IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE
MORNING MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. SOME
ISOLATED TS MAY BE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 20 PERCENT
THUS WAS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS. SHOWERS AND ANY TS WILL
DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
OCCASIONAL GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 20 MPH MAY OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER 06Z, VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO MVFR LEVELS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FROM VIS TO MCE BUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
AS FAR SOUTH TO IMPACT BFL AS WELL.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY DECEMBER 26, 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA,
MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK
AREA) AND SEQUIOA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ300>339.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ323-
326>331.
PUBLIC...SM
AVIATION....HATCH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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