844
FXUS66 KHNX 272328
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
328 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION, AND AIR QUALITY
ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WILL SEE DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AS CLOUDS LINGER
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA, THE
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
2. DENSE FOG RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A WET
START FOR 2026.
DISCUSSION
WE FIND OURSELVES TODAY NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGH BUT ALL
THE MOISTURE PLUMES NOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH AFTER A VERY WET
CHRISTMAS. LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLES GIVE AN ENCOURAGING SIGN AS
THE TROUGH SLIDES EAST TODAY AS A RIDGE MOVES IN OVER THE
WEEKEND BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLES AGREE
THAT PART OF THE TROUGH WILL STILL BREAK OFF AND SLIDE OFF TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE PACIFIC LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF A REX
BLOCK. THIS WILL HELP BRING A STABLE PATTERN WHICH BRINGS A
RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY. TONIGHT WE ARE LOOKING AT A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE FOR MUCH OF THE
VALLEY BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BELOW AVERAGE AS THERE IS A LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF HIGHS OF AT LEAST 55 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEY IN THE LATEST NBM RUN.
HOWEVER, ANY PLANS FOR NEW YEARS WILL BE RECOMMENDED TO BE
INDOORS AS A TROUGH BEGINS SLIDING IN ON WEDNESDAY AND PICKS UP
THE CUTOFF LOW THAT IS FROM THE REX BLOCK. MODEL ENSEMBLES
DIFFER AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM THIS STORM
ESPECIALLY OF WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT VALUES OF AT LEAST 250
KG/(M/S). ANY MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORED TO MOVE IN FROM KERN
COUNTY NORTHWARD. THERE IS A 60 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST
A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN EACH DAY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
THE VALLEY. IN THE SIERRA NEVADA, THERE IS A 10 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A FOOT OF SNOW OR MORE FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT DUE TO FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 09Z-18Z
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 28, 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
BSO/JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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