970
FXUS66 KHNX 280542
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
942 PM PST SAT DEC 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXPECT DRYING CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
LINGER MAINLY ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA, THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS,
AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
2. DENSE FOG RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO A
WET START FOR 2026.
DISCUSSION
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS PASSING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT, AS WELL
AS OVER THE SIERRA, ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KERN COUNTY. THIS MAY MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST, THEN FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTY E/NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN KERN COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES, AS WELL AS THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS
ABOVE 45 MPH EXISTS, THOUGH WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE AT
BEST.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS.
PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 24-HOUR
PRECIPITATION REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH BY NEW YEARS DAY
ACROSS THE REGION, THEN CHANCES FOR THIS AMOUNT INCREASE TO
50-60 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO NEXT
SATURDAY, AND THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER 0.25 INCH IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD REMAINS AT 35-45 PERCENT ENDING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SUCH AS AN
INCH, REMAINS, THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A 40-50
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR NEW YEARS DAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, OR ABOVE 7,000 FEET UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT LOWER A BIT, OR TO AROUND 5,500 FEET, BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING
A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
6-10 PERIOD SHOWN IN THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THE CPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT TILT
IN THE ODDS (UP TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. BOTH OUTLOOKS SHOW BETTER ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT FOR BOTH THE 6-10
DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AVIATION
THERE IS A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT DUE TO FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM 10Z-18Z
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 28, 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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