167
FXUS66 KHNX 281738
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
938 AM PST SUN DEC 28 2025
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION REFRESHED FOR 18Z TAFS.
AVIATION
ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY IMPROVING, LOW SUN ANGLE AND LACK OF MIXING
RESPONSIBLE FOR LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING WHEN OR IF IFR CEILINGS
LIFT, AND FOR HOW LONG. ALL SITES HOLD IFR CEILINGS ALL DAY OR
SOME BREAK TO MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 22Z. SATURATED GROUND AND LOW
LEVELS ALLOW IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN, IF THEY EVER LEAVE, SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK, DRY DISTURBANCE
TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR DENSE FOG IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TOWARDS 12Z. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
DENSE FOG AT KVIS/KBFL. REGARDLESS, ALL SITES EXPECTED TO HAVE
IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 300 AM PST SUN DEC 28 2025/
KEY MESSAGES... 1. DRY CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
MAKING A RETURN TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
2. DENSE FOG RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY EACH NIGHT AND
MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY AND LEAD TO A
WET START FOR 2026.
DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS PASSING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT, AS WELL
AS OVER THE SIERRA, ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KERN COUNTY. THIS MAY MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST, THEN FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTY E/NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN KERN COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES, AS WELL AS THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS
ABOVE 45 MPH EXISTS, THOUGH WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE AT
BEST.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS.
PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 24-HOUR
PRECIPITATION REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH BY NEW YEARS DAY
ACROSS THE REGION, THEN CHANCES FOR THIS AMOUNT INCREASE TO
50-60 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO NEXT
SATURDAY, AND THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER 0.25 INCH IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD REMAINS AT 35-45 PERCENT ENDING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SUCH AS AN
INCH, REMAINS, THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A 40-50
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR NEW YEARS DAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, OR ABOVE 7,000 FEET UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT LOWER A BIT, OR TO AROUND 5,500 FEET, BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING
A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
6-10 PERIOD SHOWN IN THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THE CPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT TILT
IN THE ODDS (UP TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. BOTH OUTLOOKS SHOW BETTER ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT FOR BOTH THE 6-10
DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 28, 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ306-
310>312-314>316.
PUBLIC...MOLINA
AVIATION....MATTAROCHIA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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