366
FXUS66 KHNX 282354
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
354 PM PST SUN DEC 28 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION, AIR QUALITY ISSUES, AND KEY
MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
2. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW NEW YEAR'S
EVE.
3. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A STRONGER STORM DURING THE FIRST
WEEKEND OF 2026.
DISCUSSION
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS PASSING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT, AS WELL
AS OVER THE SIERRA, ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF KERN COUNTY. THIS MAY MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER, IF LOW CLOUDS PERSIST, THEN FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE LIMITED. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY TO DROP BELOW 1/4 MILE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTY E/NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN KERN COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES, AS WELL AS THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS
ABOVE 45 MPH EXISTS, THOUGH WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE AT
BEST.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS.
PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 24-HOUR
PRECIPITATION REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH BY NEW YEARS DAY
ACROSS THE REGION, THEN CHANCES FOR THIS AMOUNT INCREASE TO
50-60 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO NEXT
SATURDAY, AND THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER 0.25 INCH IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD REMAINS AT 35-45 PERCENT ENDING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SUCH AS AN
INCH, REMAINS, THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A 40-50
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR NEW YEARS DAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, OR ABOVE 7,000 FEET UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT LOWER A BIT, OR TO AROUND 5,500 FEET, BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING
A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
6-10 PERIOD SHOWN IN THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THE CPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT TILT
IN THE ODDS (UP TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. BOTH OUTLOOKS SHOW BETTER ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT FOR BOTH THE 6-10
DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AVIATION
CLEARING HAS OCCURRED IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY, ALTHOUGH FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z TONIGHT. SATURATED GROUND
AND LOW LEVELS ALLOW IFR CEILINGS TO RETURN TOWARDS VIS AND BFL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. REGARDLESS, ALL SITES
EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 29, 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CM/MATTAROCHIA/BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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