950
FXUS66 KHNX 290008
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
408 PM PST SUN DEC 28 2025
UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES, AIR QUALITY AND AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE FOR 0Z
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA UNTIL
WEDNESDAY.
2. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW NEW
YEAR'S EVE.
3. MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR A STRONGER STORM DURING
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF 2026.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER
CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER
CHANCES FOR NIGHTTIME AND MORNING FOG OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
GUSTY E/NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN KERN COUNTY, INCLUDING THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOJAVE DESERT SLOPES, AS WELL AS THE SIERRA NEVADA
CREST ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS
ABOVE 45 MPH EXISTS, THOUGH WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE AT
BEST.
BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS.
PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 24-HOUR
PRECIPITATION REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH BY NEW YEARS DAY
ACROSS THE REGION, THEN CHANCES FOR THIS AMOUNT INCREASE TO
50-60 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO NEXT
SATURDAY, AND THE PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER 0.25 INCH IN A 24-HOUR
PERIOD REMAINS AT 35-45 PERCENT ENDING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SUCH AS AN
INCH, REMAINS, THOUGH MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH A 40-50
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR NEW YEARS DAY INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, OR ABOVE 7,000 FEET UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT LOWER A BIT, OR TO AROUND 5,500 FEET, BY NEXT
WEEKEND.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING
A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
6-10 PERIOD SHOWN IN THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THE CPC CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT TILT
IN THE ODDS (UP TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. BOTH OUTLOOKS SHOW BETTER ODDS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT FOR BOTH THE 6-10
DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AVIATION
ALTHOUGH EACH TAF SITE EVENTUALLY ROSE OUT OF IFR CONDITIONS,
THERE REMAINS A SOLID DECK OF STRATUS AROUND 1500 FEET FROM KVIS
TO KBFL. NORTH OF KVIS IS WHERE MOST OF THE CLEARING OCCURRED,
AND THOSE PARTS (KFAT/KMER) HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
DENSE FOG AND PROLONGED IFR PERIODS OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CEILINGS
MAY FALL BELOW 1000 FEET FROM KVIS TO KBFL, VISIBILITIES MAY
STAY UP LONGER AND ANY PERIODS OF DENSE FOG MAY BE SHORTER THAN
FURTHER NORTH, IF DENSE FOG DEVELOPS AT ALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WHERE, WHEN AND HOW LONG IFR CONDS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. ALSO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW AND WHEN TAF SITES WILL
IMPROVE INTO THE LATE MORNING MONDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/28/2025 13:42
EXPIRES: 12/29/2025 23:59
ON MONDAY DECEMBER 29 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN COUNTIES.
BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
PUBLIC...MATTAROCHIA
AVIATION....MATTAROCHIA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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