999
FXUS66 KHNX 300216
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
616 PM PST MON DEC 29 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT.
2. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST WEEK, ARE
MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. 70%-80% PROBABILITY FOR 0.5” OF
RAIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, 30%-40% PROBABILITY FOR 0.5” OF RAIN
IN THE VALLEY, LATER WEDNESDAY ENDING THURSDAY.
3. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR A STORM ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ALTERNATE SCENARIOS KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS ONLY MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES OR MISS THE REGION
ENTIRELY.
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY MUCH EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL ALLOW FOR LONGER DURATION AND WIDESPREAD DENSE
FOG COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP AT 8Z WITH DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS HOLDING ON UNTIL
LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE
TUESDAY IF DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE AS WIDESPREAD AS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM PST MON DEC 29 2025/
DISCUSSION... PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR MADERA AND
WILL SPREAD TOWARDS MERCED. THESE AREAS CLEARED EARLIER IN THE
DAY AND REMAINED CLEAR UNTIL AROUND 8-9 PM PST. QUITE A FEW
VALLEY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING FROM BAKERSFIELD TO FRESNO REMAINED
UNDER A STRATUS DECK FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING. HENCE, FOG MAY BE
SLOW TO DEVELOP UNDERNEATH THE DECK, AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEAR, WE
COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE
ENTIRE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO BECOME FOGGY AFTER 12Z MONDAY (4 AM
PST).
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
WEST COAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT GIVES WAY TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE CA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON NEW YEAR'S EVE INTO NEW
YEAR'S DAY. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO BE ABOVE 8,000 FEET, AS THIS
IS A RELATIVELY WARM SYSTEM WITH A SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE.
PRECIPITATION APPEARS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM, AT
LEAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR
0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEW YEAR'S DAY IS AT 60-70
PERCENT AND 50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER
MUCH OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SIX INCHES
OF SNOW ARE 45-55 PERCENT, BUT LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9,000 FEET. A COLDER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOTHER
INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA NEVADA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE AT
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR A FOOT, MAINLY ABOVE 7,000 FEET. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AS LOW AS 5,500 FEET WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING
A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
6-10 PERIOD SHOWN IN THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER (CPC). THE CPC THEN SHOWS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
BOTH OUTLOOKS HAVE BEEN SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, OR NOW ABOUT 50-60 PERCENT FOR BOTH THE
6-10 DAY AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS.
AVIATION...
LIFR WITH PATCHY VLIFR WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF FAT THROUGH 19Z MONDAY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, SATURATED GROUND AND LOW LEVELS ALLOW IFR CEILINGS TO
RETURN TOWARDS VIS AND BFL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY.
A 30-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/4 MILE
EXISTS FOR AREAS FROM FAT SOUTHWARD, MAINLY FROM 12Z-19Z MONDAY.
LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG HAVE AT LEAST A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE TO DEVELOP BY 06Z MONDAY IN ALL AREAS THEN
INCREASING TO 50-60 PERCENT BY 12Z MONDAY. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 30 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND MADERA
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MERCED, AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC...MATTAROCHIA/BSO
AVIATION....MATTAROCHIA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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