558
FXUS66 KHNX 301117
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
317 AM PST TUE DEC 30 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEY TONIGHT.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN AND VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW (9000
FT) MOVING INTO KERN COUNTY EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION NEW YEAR'S EVE INTO NEW YEAR'S DAY.
3. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST WEEK, ARE
MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. 70%-80% PROBABILITY FOR 0.5” OF
RAIN AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, 30%-40% PROBABILITY FOR 0.5” OF RAIN
IN THE VALLEY, LATER WEDNESDAY ENDING THURSDAY.
4. LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR A STORM ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ALTERNATE SCENARIOS KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS ONLY MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES OR MISS THE REGION
ENTIRELY.
DISCUSSION
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE LOWEST VISIBILITY IS
AROUND MERCED, OR AT 1/4 MILE. HOWEVER, DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN YESTERDAY, BUT SHORT-TERM ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL LIFT BY NOON TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARRIVE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH THAT ARRIVE ARRIVE IN KERN COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.01 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN KERN
COUNTY IS AT LEAST 50-60 PERCENT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD TOWARDS WESTERN KERN COUNTY.
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEGIN LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS BEGIN VERY HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY, OR ABOUT 9,000 TO 10,000 FEET, THEN LOWER TO AROUND
8,000 FEET BY NEW YEAR'S DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (70-80%) THAT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
FROM YOSEMITE NP TO THE FRAZIER PARK AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST
0.50 INCH BY NEW YEAR'S DAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE VALLEY FLOOR, BUT THERE IS A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF INCH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WILL SEE AT LEAST
0.50 INCH, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LINGER INTO FRIDAY, AND ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LESSER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED, BUT THIS WILL BE A COLDER
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH, THE PROBABILITY OF 0.50 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS IS ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT FROM LATE FRIDAY UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY. AS OF NOW, SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO
AROUND 7,000 FEET ON FRIDAY AND LOWER EVEN MORE, OR TO 6,000
FEET, BY LATE SATURDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE AT ELEVATIONS
MAINLY ABOVE 7,000 FEET. OTHERWISE, LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK ALONG WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE GOLDEN STATE.
AVIATION
EXPECT WIDESPREAD PATCHY DENSE FOG (LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS)
THROUGH 20Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 30 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND MADERA
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MERCED, AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR CAZ301>303-305>307-
309>312-314>316.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ334>336.
EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page