838
FXUS66 KHNX 302305
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
305 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2025
UPDATE
NEW KEY MESSAGES AND AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FLOOD WATCH FROM 10PM WEDNESDAY TO 10PM THURSDAY FOR FOR THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING FOR KERN COUNTY, THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY.
3. PROBABILITY OF 60%-70% FOR 1” OF RAIN IN 48 HOURS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DESERTS OF KERN COUNTY. AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST WEEK, ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING.
4.STORM #2 ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
IMPACTING THE FOOTHILLS OF MARIPOSA, MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES
THE MOST.
AVIATION
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
DENSE FOG AGAIN, SOLID MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE DENSE FOG, EXCEPT FOR KMER WHICH STILL REMAINS AT 3SM
AS OF WRITING. WORST CASE SCENARIO, WOULD BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR CEILINGS AS OPPOSSED TO VISIBILITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 317 AM PST TUE DEC 30 2025/
DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AT
TIMES THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE LOWEST VISIBILITY IS
AROUND MERCED, OR AT 1/4 MILE. HOWEVER, DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO CLEAR THAN YESTERDAY, BUT SHORT-TERM ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL LIFT BY NOON TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS
ARRIVE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HERALD THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRAJECTORY OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH THAT ARRIVE ARRIVE IN KERN COUNTY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.01 INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN KERN
COUNTY IS AT LEAST 50-60 PERCENT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
THOUGH WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD TOWARDS WESTERN KERN COUNTY.
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BEGIN LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS BEGIN VERY HIGH ON
WEDNESDAY, OR ABOUT 9,000 TO 10,000 FEET, THEN LOWER TO AROUND
8,000 FEET BY NEW YEAR'S DAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY (70-80%) THAT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
FROM YOSEMITE NP TO THE FRAZIER PARK AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST
0.50 INCH BY NEW YEAR'S DAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR ON THE VALLEY FLOOR, BUT THERE IS A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF A HALF INCH. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WILL SEE AT LEAST
0.50 INCH, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LINGER INTO FRIDAY, AND ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. LESSER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED, BUT THIS WILL BE A COLDER
SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH, THE PROBABILITY OF 0.50 INCH OF RAIN IN THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS IS ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT FROM LATE FRIDAY UNTIL
LATE SATURDAY. AS OF NOW, SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO
AROUND 7,000 FEET ON FRIDAY AND LOWER EVEN MORE, OR TO 6,000
FEET, BY LATE SATURDAY. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
ANOTHER SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE AT ELEVATIONS
MAINLY ABOVE 7,000 FEET. OTHERWISE, LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK ALONG WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE GOLDEN STATE.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY DECEMBER 30 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, AND MADERA
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MERCED, AND TULARE
COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA
NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ333>339.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC...MATTAROCHIA
AVIATION....MATTAROCHIA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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