094
FXUS66 KHNX 310534
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
934 PM PST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
1. FLOOD WATCH FROM 10PM WEDNESDAY TO 10PM THURSDAY FOR FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING OF NEW YEAR'S DAY FOR KERN COUNTY, THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
3. PROBABILITY OF 60%-70% FOR 1” OF RAIN IN 48 HOURS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND DESERT OF KERN COUNTY. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST WEEK ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.
4.STORM #2 ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, IMPACTING
THE FOOTHILLS OF MARIPOSA, MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES THE MOST.
DISCUSSION
BAND OF HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THE AUTHOR HAS MODERATE CONFIDENCE
THAT THESE PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY, AS
LATEST HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY
BELOW 1/2 MILE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DROPS
THEN QUICKLY REBOUNDS AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOW
STRATUS WILL LINGER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BENEATH THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS. SHOWERS ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
A MODERATE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS
TOWARDS KERN COUNTY AND NEARBY COUNTIES IN OUR AREA.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN EARNEST BY THE EVENING, AND HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE PROJECTED AFTER THE CLOCK STRIKES MIDNIGHT FOR 2026.
THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON
OF NEW YEAR'S DAY IS ABOUT 45-55 PERCENT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA UP
TO AROUND 8,000 FEET AND NEAR 60 PERCENT FOR ESSENTIALLY ALL OF
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS, AS WELL AS THE DESERT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT, AS THERE ARE MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR AMOUNTS UP
TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS MORE IMPACTS TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
CHANCES FOR AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON RISE TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA, GENERALLY IN FRESNO COUNTY NORTHWARD AT ELEVATIONS UP TO
7,000 FEET. THE CHANCES FOR A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 7,000 FEET ARE
AT 50-60 PERCENT IN THE SIERRA NEVADA. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO
AROUND 6,000 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, OR AFTER MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS STEADY
AROUND 6,000 FEET WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE CPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE
AVERAGE, OR MILD, TEMPERATURES FOR THE GOLDEN STATE OUT TO 6-14
DAYS AHEAD.
AVIATION
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO FOG/MIST IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR VISIBILITY AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY, BECOMING MVFR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHRA AFTER 21Z WEDNESDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 31 2025, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS,
MADERA, MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KERN
(GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND
FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ333>339.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ335.
BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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