268
FXUS66 KHNX 010323 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
723 PM PST WED DEC 31 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AIR QUALITY ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FLOOD WATCH FROM 10PM WEDNESDAY TO 10PM THURSDAY FOR FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY.
2. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING OF NEW YEAR'S DAY FOR KERN COUNTY, THEN SPREADING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
3. PROBABILITY OF 60%-70% FOR 1” OF RAIN IN 48 HOURS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND DESERT OF KERN COUNTY. AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST WEEK ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO FLOODING.
4.STORM #2 ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, IMPACTING
THE FOOTHILLS OF MARIPOSA, MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES THE MOST.
DISCUSSION
CLOSED-LOW DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFFSHORE STARTING TO DRAW-IN
MOISTURE FROM AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BASED ON SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA, THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL
DRIFT CLOSER TO SHORE & REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST-LINE ON
THURSDAY (NEW YEAR’S). REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND PUSHING
NORTH. 3 HOURLY RAIN-RATES ARE SHOWING MOST LOCATIONS RECEIVING
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS.
BY THIS EVENING, ENSEMBLE UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS HAS THE CLOSED-LOW
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST-LINE WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ENHANCING
PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH THIS, WILL OPT FOR
THE START OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEW YEAR’S DAY. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, 12 HOUR
PROBABILITY OF 0.5 OF AN INCH RAIN JUMPS TO OVER 35 PERCENT.
THIS INCREASE ADDS CONFIDENCE IN EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION HITTING
KERN COUNTY (FRAZIER PARK, PINE MOUNTAIN CLUB AND LEBEC) AT THE
TIME WHEN A FLOOD WATCH IS IN PLACE.
WHILE DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP-WATER FROM THE CHRISTMAS DAY STORM
ARE NOTES IN THAT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PLUME MAY NOT REACH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REACH AREA THAT
HAVE SATURATED GROUNDS. THEREFORE, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE
INITIATION OF FLOODING TO OCCUR OVER KERN COUNTY. ESPECIALLY
OVER THE BURN SCARS FROM RECENT FIRES.
A SECONDARY STORM COMINGS IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WILL
PROVIDE US WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAVORED
OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA. DURING BOTH EVENTS, THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING
0.5 OR EVEN 0.25 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. YET, CUMULATIVELY, THE
VALLEY MAY SEE UP TO A 0.5 OF AN INCH BY THE FIRST FEW DAY OF
JANUARY. LINGERING SHOWER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AS CYCLONIC (UNSETTLED) FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. THE END OF NEXT WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
AVIATION
IFR WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR AFTERWARD WHILE
LIGHT RAIN TAKES OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. PERIOD OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING AT AROUND 06Z THURSDAY RESULTING IN
A 20%-30% CHANCE OF LIFR VISIBILITIES.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 1 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KERN (GREATER FRAZIER
PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
CAZ333>339.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ301>303-
305>307-310>312-315.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA/BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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