473
FXUS66 KHNX 010627
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1027 PM PST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES...
1. FLOOD WATCH FROM 10PM WEDNESDAY TO 10PM THURSDAY FOR FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY.
2. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE GRAPEVINE IN KERN COUNTY UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING.
3. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING OF NEW YEAR'S DAY FOR KERN COUNTY, THEN SPREADING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION LATER IN THE DAY.
4. PROBABILITY OF 60%-70% FOR 1” OF RAIN IN 48 HOURS IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DESERT OF KERN COUNTY. AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST WEEK ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING.
5. STORM #2 ARRIVING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
IMPACTING THE FOOTHILLS OF MARIPOSA, MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTIES
THE MOST.
DISCUSSION
RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST AND AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH NEW YEAR'S DAY. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE
AS WELL IN THE VALLEY, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL LATE THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GRAPEVINE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT HERE UNTIL 15Z THURSDAY.
LATEST MRMS ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 0.10-0.25" OF PRECIPITATION
HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA OF THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KERN COUNTY DESERTS IN THE LAST 12 HOURS, AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 30-50% CHANCE OF THIS AREA RECEIVING ANOTHER
0.50" BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION ONGOING FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY. THERE
IS ALSO A 10-15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HERE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER COASTAL TROUGH WILL DIRECT WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
60-80% CHANCE OF 1" OF PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN KERN COUNTY IN THE 72 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN 12Z
SATURDAY AND 12Z TUESDAY, WHICH COULD REINTRODUCE CONCERNS FOR
EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION.
IN THE FOOTHILLS, THERE WILL BE A 40-70% CHANCE OF 1" OF
PRECIPITATION OR MORE. IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, THESE ODDS
RISE TO NEAR 100%. WHILE SNOW LEVELS ARE AROUND 8000-9000FT FOR
THE NEW YEAR'S DAY SYSTEM, THEY WILL FALL CLOSER TO 6000FT FOR
THIS SECOND SYSTEM, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION
VFR CIGS AND MVFR OR IFR VIS CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN IS
ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES, EXCEPT BFL. STEADIER RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE A BIT MORE. IMPROVEMENT WILL
OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN HEADS OUT. HOWEVER, BUILDING
INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY AT ANY TAFS FOR NOW.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY JANUARY 1 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KERN (GREATER FRAZIER
PARK AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY...
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAZ333>339.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ301>303-
305>307-310>312-315.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC...SNYDER
AVIATION....BORGHOFF
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page