656
FXUS66 KHNX 141100
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG REDEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY.
2. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.
3. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 10 PM
WEDNESDAY. 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS
ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG TEJON PASS.
4. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLID IN TODAY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW. THE STABILITY WITH THIS RIDGE BRINGS A 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF FOG. HOWEVER, THE BIG STORY IS THE TROUGH THAT
MOVES IN SUNDAY INTO MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST TIMING OF THE
TROUGH HAS A 5 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN BETWEEN 10 AM AND 4
PM SUNDAY IN MERCED AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY AND
BY 10 AM MONDAY, THE ENTIRE VALLEY HAS A 70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE
OF RAIN.
THIS TROUGH IS A VERY COLD TROUGH. LATEST MODELS SHOW A 75 TO
100 PERCENT CHANCE OF TWO FEET OR MORE OF SNOW IN 48 HOURS
ENDING 4 AM WEDNESDAY. THERE EVEN IS A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF 3
INCHES OR MORE IN 24 HOURS ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR TEHACHAPI
AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS
ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG TEJON PASS. IN THE VALLEY, THERE IS
A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS ENDING
4 PM MONDAY, A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH ENDING 4 PM
TUESDAY, AND A 5 TO 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH ENDING 4 PM
WEDNESDAY. THE FOOTHILLS WILL SEE A SHIFT FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM INCLUDING A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW
ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR OAKHURST.
AS THE BIG TROUGH SLIDES AWAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE
TROUGHING CONTINUES AS A FEW MORE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND. THE
CPC HAS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK HINTS AT A
CHANGE WITH A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND A 33 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD.
AVIATION
THERE IS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO FOG THROUGH 17Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 02/13/2026 14:44
EXPIRES: 02/14/2026 23:59
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ301>303-
305>307-309>312-314-315.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ318-320-322>331-333.
PUBLIC...JPK
AVIATION....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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