947
FXUS66 KHNX 142203
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
203 PM PST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A STRONG SYSTEM TO APPROACH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
MODERATE RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION.
2. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 10
PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN MOUNTAINS.
3. 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS
ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG TEJON PASS HAS LED TO A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
4. STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES, ALONG
WITH THE MOJAVE DESERT AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.
5. GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
A CONTINUATION OF THIS MONTH'S ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER
THE COMING DAYS AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE GULF OF ALASKA BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL FORCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER THE REGION APPROACHING 0.75-1.00", WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL TO
COMPARABLE WINTER SYSTEMS, STARTING AROUND 5500-6000 FEET
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING AND AS SUCH THERE IS STRONG
CONFIDENCE (60-70 PERCENT) FOR 18 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE THESE LEVELS ACROSS 24 HOURS ENDING
MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME, THERE ARE SIMILAR
PROBABILITIES (60-80 PERCENT) FOR HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR
THE AREAS BELOW THESE SNOW LEVELS.
WHERE THIS PATTERN DIFFERS FROM OTHER WINTER SYSTEMS IS THE
EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY
SLIDING DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK UPWARDS OF 100 KNOTS
WILL DRAW COLD, POLAR AIR FROM CENTRAL ALASKA, AND PUSH IT
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INCOMING
SYSTEM. THIS COLD, MOIST AIR WILL RESULT IN SNOW LEVELS FALLING
DRAMATICALLY INTO TUESDAY, WITH MINIMUM EXPECTED LEVELS DURING
THE DAY BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET. AS SUCH, THERE IS ADDITIONAL
STRONG CONFIDENCE (80-90 PERCENT) IN GREATER THAN 18 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL ABOVE THESE LEVELS WHICH INCLUDES LOCATIONS SUCH AS
WAWONA, SHAVER LAKE, LODGEPOLE, CAMP NELSON, AND ALTA SIERRA.
THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY (50-60 PERCENT) FOR AN ADDITIONAL
THREE FEET OF ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA ACROSS 24 HOURS ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL, THE
PREVIOUS WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING VALID 10 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 10
PM WEDNESDAY AND NOW ALSO INCLUDES THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAIN RANGE
AND SOUTHERN KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR I-5 ALONG THE GRAPEVINE AS THERE IS A 40-50
PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATED
SNOWFALL AT TEJON PASS.
IN ADDITION, STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOCAL AREA
MOUNTAIN RANGES AND IN THE MOJAVE DESERT AREAS. FOR THESE AREAS,
THERE IS AN 80-90 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR MAXIMUM GUSTS TO
EXCEED 40 MPH BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND A 70-80 PERCENT
PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 55 MPH IN THE MOJAVE SLOPES ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE GUSTS TO DOWNSLOPE INTO THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON MONDAY AS BAKERSFIELD HAS AROUND
A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MAXIMUM GUSTS TO EXCEED 35 MPH.
MONDAY ALSO BRINGS A GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DUE TO THE LARGE MOISTURE
FLUX AND RELATIVE VORTICITY FROM THE CUTOFF LOW.
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATE
WEEK AND WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE ACTIVE PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE LUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE (30-50 PERCENT) FOR AN ADDITIONAL SYSTEM TO
DROP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST NEXT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 02/13/2026 14:44
EXPIRES: 02/14/2026 23:59
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ318-320-322>331-333-334-336.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC/AVIATION...MCCOY
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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