613
FXUS66 KHNX 151112
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
312 AM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A STRONG SYSTEM TO APPROACH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
MODERATE RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION.
2. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 10
PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN MOUNTAINS.
3. 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS
ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG TEJON PASS HAS LED TO A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
4. STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES, ALONG
WITH THE MOJAVE DESERT AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.
5. GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR HAS DETECTED A FEW SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA. THE FIRST
TROUGH ALSO HAS BEEN PICKED UP BY THE SATELLITE AS IT SPINS OFF
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE IN
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE FIRST SHOWERS APPEARING IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS
HAVE THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING IN ON MONDAY
FOR THE FIRST WAVE. ENSEMBLES SHOW A STRONGER AND COLDER TROUGH
MOVING IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHICH LOWERS THE SNOW LEVELS
FOR MOST OF THE VALLEY AND SIERRA NEVADA DOWN TO 2,500 FEET BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 3,000 TO 3,500
FEET IN KERN COUNTY.
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE A 75 TO 100 PERCENT OF AT LEAST
FOUR FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 6,000 FEET. THE FOOTHILLS ALSO WILL SEE
SNOW AS THE SNOW LEVELS DROP WITH A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4
INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AT 2,500 FEET FOR
LOCATIONS SUCH AS OAKHURST, MID PINES, EL PORTAL AND LAKE
ISABELLA. THE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS ALSO WILL IMPACT BOTH
TEHACHAPI PASS AND TEJON PASS AS THERE IS A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW THROUGH 4 AM THURSDAY AND A 43 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 4 INCHES AT THE CITY OF TEHACHAPI. IN THE VALLEY,
THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN
IN STORM TOTAL ENDING 4 AM THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO AREAS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL YET HIGHLIGHTED IN THE VALLEY.
THE SECOND COLDER TROUGH LIFTS AWAY ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY FRIDAY
INTO NEXT SATURDAY. THE CPC HINTS AT A CHANGE AS IT GOES FROM A
40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TO A SLIVER OF THE 33-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BELOW AVERAGE IN MARIPOSA COUNTY BUT THE REST OF THE AREA
AT NEAR NORMAL. ON THE PRECIPITATION END, IT SHIFTS FROM A 33
TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION GRADIENT IN
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TO A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH SOME AREAS OF NEAR NORMAL IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER AROUND 09Z TO 12Z FROM
AROUND FL200 TO FL050 TO FL100. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE TAF SITES BY 06Z MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 02/13/2026 14:44
EXPIRES: 02/14/2026 23:59
ON SATURDAY FEBRUARY 14 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO AND KERN
COUNTIES. BURNING DISCOURAGED IN KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ300-308-313-337>339.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM PST
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ318-320-322>331-333-334-336.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC...JPK
AVIATION....EW
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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