245
FXUS66 KHNX 160516
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
916 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG SYSTEM MOVES IN THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING MODERATE
RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION.
2. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN MOUNTAINS.
3. 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IN 24 HOURS
ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY ALONG TEJON PASS HAS LED TO A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
4. STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES, ALONG
WITH THE MOJAVE DESERT AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY THROUGH 4 PM
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WEST SIDE HILLS AND MOJAVE SLOPES AND FROM 7
AM THROUGH 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
5. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF MERCED
COUNTY WITH A 2 TO 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF TORNADOES. GENERAL RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS DETECTED THE RAIN BEGINNING TO
AGAIN MOVE INTO THE BAY AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL RANGE
AS THE FIRST BIG TROUGH BEGINS MOVING IN. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FIRST WAVE BEGINS LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO MONDAY. LATEST PROBABILITIES HAVE A 55 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE
OF HALF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS IN THE VALLEY ENDING
10 PM MONDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH A 30 TO
60 PERCENT CHANCE OF CAPE VALUES OF 100 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE VALLEY ALONG WITH A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SURFACE TO 1 KM HELICITY OF AT LEAST 100 M^2/S^2. THIS HAS LED
THE SPC TO ISSUE A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
2 TO 4 PERCENT CHANCE OF TORNADOES IN PORTIONS OF MERCED COUNTY
AND A GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE VALLEY.
HOWEVER, THE BIG CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THIS WEEK IS THE SNOW
ESPECIALLY AS A STRONGER, COLDER SECOND TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS DRASTICALLY TO 2,000
TO 2,500 FEET BY 7 AM WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CASE (LOW END) SNOW
AMOUNTS SHOWS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 TO 3 FEET OF SNOW ABOVE
5,000 FEET AND 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE 7,000 FEET. ON THE OTHER
EXTREME, THE WORST CASE SHOWS 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE 5,500 FEET AND 6
TO 8 FEET ABOVE 7,000 FEET. THE LOWERING SNOW ELEVATIONS ALSO
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE PASSES AS THERE IS A 21
PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON TEJON PASS AND A 5 TO 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON TEHACHAPI PASS. THERE ALSO
IS A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TRACE EVEN IN THE VALLEY.
THIS SECOND PUSH ALSO WILL BRING A SECOND PULSE OF RAIN INTO THE
VALLEY WITH A 45 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OF
RAIN ENDING 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE VALLEY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BUT
LIGHTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM, THE CPC SHOWS A CHANGE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS GO FROM A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK. BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AT 40 TO 50
PERCENT FOR THE VALLEY.
AVIATION
CIGS BEGIN TO LOWER AROUND 09Z TO 12Z TO FL050 FROM FL100.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE TAF SITES AROUND 06Z
MONDAY BEFORE EXTENDING AFTER 09Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z MONDAY IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS LOWERING VISIBILITY. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 09Z DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND THE PRECIPITATION. THERE IS A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 02/15/2026 14:05
EXPIRES: 02/16/2026 23:59
ON MONDAY FEBRUARY 16 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ300-308-313-337>339.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ309-310-
314>316.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ318-320-
322>331-333-334-336.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ335.
JPK
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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