960
FXUS66 KHNX 162049 AAA
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1249 PM PST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG SYSTEM MOVES IN THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING MODERATE
RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION.
2. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN MOUNTAINS.
3. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM
THURSDAY FOR THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
4. STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES, ALONG
WITH THE MOJAVE DESERT AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE WEST
SIDE HILLS AND MOJAVE SLOPES AND THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
5. GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY
AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG WINTER STORM STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SPREADING OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO THE
FOOTHILLS NORTH AND EAST OF FRESNO. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MOUNTAIN SNOW INCREASING OVER THE SIERRA ABOVE 5000 FEET. GUSTY
MAINLY S WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA, STRONGEST
OVER THE WESTSIDE MOUNTAINS, IN THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VLY AND
INTO THE MTNS AND DESERTS. ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ALOFT (DOWN TO -27 DEG C AT H5 BY
LATE TODAY), CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE AREA NEAR A 100 KT JET
EXIT REGION, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
AS THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES E
TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF SOME OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY BUT WITH MOIST WSW FLOW AT MID LEVELS LEVELS
PERSISTING, ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE SIERRA, WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING TO LOWER DOWN TO NEAR
3000 FEET NORTH TO 4000 FEET SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO NEAR 4000 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI
MTNS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A SECOND STORM SYSTEM AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL AFFECT THE
AREA GENERALLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THIS WEEK IS THE
SNOW AND ITS IMPACTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TUE INTO WED AS A
STRONGER, COLDER SECOND TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA, LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS DRASTICALLY TO 2,000 TO 2,500 FEET BY 7 AM WED. THE
BEST CASE (LOW END) SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2
TO 3 FEET OF SNOW ABOVE 5,000 FEET AND 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE 7,000
FEET. ON THE OTHER EXTREME, THE WORST CASE SHOWS 5 TO 6 FEET
ABOVE 5,500 FEET AND 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE 7,000 FEET. THE LOWERING
SNOW ELEVATIONS ALSO BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE PASSES
AS THERE IS A 21 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON TEJON
PASS AND A 5 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON
TEHACHAPI PASS. THERE ALSO IS A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
TRACE EVEN IN THE VALLEY.
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE FIRST STORM WILL OCCUR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST PROBABILITIES HAVE A 55 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE OF HALF AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN 24 HOURS IN
THE VALLEY ENDING 10 PM THIS EVENING.
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A 45 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ENDING 4 PM WED FOR THE VALLEY. AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS ON THU AND FRI, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
BUT LIGHTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM, THE CPC SHOWS A CHANGE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS GO FROM A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 8- 14 DAY OUTLOOK. BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AT 40 TO 50
PERCENT FOR THE VALLEY.
AVIATION
CIGS CONTINUE AROUND FL050 THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS WITH CIGS AROUND FL025 BETWEEN 05Z AND 10Z.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVIER PRECIP RATES CAUSING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 05Z TUESDAY, THEN AGAIN AFTER 18Z.
IVR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO PRECIPITATION. 10
TO 20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY; HIGHEST
CHANCES BETWEEN 20Z TODAY AND 12Z TUESDAY IN THE VALLEY. WINDS
AT THE TAF SITES PRIMARILY NEAR OR BELOW 12 KTS UNTIL AROUND 18Z
WHEN GUSTS WILL INCREASE UP TO 25KTS.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 02/15/2026 14:05
EXPIRES: 02/16/2026 23:59
ON MONDAY FEBRUARY 16 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED,
AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ300-308-313-
337>339.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ309-310-
314>316.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ318-320-
322>331-333-334-336.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC...JS
AVIATION....SP
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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