883
FXUS66 KHNX 171826
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1026 AM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STRONG SYSTEM MOVES IN THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING MODERATE
RAIN AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION.
2. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM THURSDAY FOR
THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THROUGH 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
3. WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY FOR THE
I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
4. STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED ALONG AREA MOUNTAIN RANGES, ALONG
WITH THE MOJAVE DESERT AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE WEST
SIDE HILLS AND MOJAVE SLOPES.
5. GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. GUSTY MAINLY S WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, STRONGEST OVER THE WESTSIDE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE MTNS
AND DESERTS. ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
WITH INCREASINGLY COLD AIR ALOFT (DOWN TO -28 DEG C AT H5 THIS
EVENING), CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE AREA NEAR A 100 KT JET EXIT
REGION, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD HAVE HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS.
AS THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM MOVES E
TONIGHT, IT LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF SOME OVER THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY BUT WITH MOIST WSW FLOW AT MID LEVELS LEVELS
PERSISTING, ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE SIERRA, WITH SNOW LEVELS CONTINUING TO LOWER DOWN TO NEAR
3000 FEET NORTH TO 4000 FEET SOUTH BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO NEAR 4000 FEET IN THE TEHACHAPI
MTNS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A SECOND STORM SYSTEM AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL AFFECT THE
AREA GENERALLY FROM TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED. ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN WITH THE STORMS THIS WEEK IS THE
SNOW AND ITS IMPACTS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE TUE INTO WED AS A
STRONGER, COLDER SECOND TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA, LOWERING
SNOW LEVELS TO 2000 TO 2500 FEET BY 7 AM WED. THE BEST CASE
(LOW END) SNOW AMOUNTS SHOWS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 TO 3 FEET
OF SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET AND 3 TO 4 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET. ON THE
OTHER EXTREME, THE WORST CASE SHOWS 5 TO 6 FEET ABOVE 5500 FEET
AND 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE LOWERING SNOW ELEVATIONS
ALSO BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ON THE PASSES AS THERE IS A
21 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON TEJON PASS AND A 5 TO
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON TEHACHAPI PASS. THERE
ALSO IS A 5 TO 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TRACE EVEN IN THE VALLEY.
THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A 45 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
ANOTHER HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ENDING 4 PM WED FOR THE VALLEY. AS
THE TROUGH LIFTS ON THU AND FRI, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS,
BUT LIGHTER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM, THE CPC SHOWS A CHANGE. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS GO FROM A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE 8- 14 DAY OUTLOOK. BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION AT 40 TO 50
PERCENT FOR THE VALLEY.
AVIATION
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVIER RATES CAUSING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO HEAVY SNOW. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON TUESDAY FEBRUARY 17 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS IS:
BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA, MERCED, AND
TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK AREA) AND
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ300-308-313-
337>339.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ318-320-
322>331.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ333-334-
336.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ335.
JS/BSO
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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