450
FXUS66 KHNX 180029
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
429 PM PST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AIR QUALITY
KEY MESSAGES
1. MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY,
BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW.
2. WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY, INCLUDING THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
3. STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES, DOWNED
TREES, AND ROAD HAZARDS FOR MANY MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
MOJAVE DESERT AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
4. GENERAL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
THE CORE OF A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THE FRINGES OF A VERY
STRONG JET WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY MIXING DOWN TO THE VALLEYS. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS JUST UNDER ONE INCH, THIS FLOW WILL
COUPLE WITH COLD UNSTABLE AIR ALOFT TO BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, WITH SOME POCKETS OVER HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, AS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS OF
MONTEREY COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES ARE SHOWING SNOW LEVELS
CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 5,000 FEET, BUT WILL FALL RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT TO LIKELY BELOW 3,000 FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL BY THEN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
BREAK ON WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN SIERRAS. THAT BREAK WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW, AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM, JUST A STEP DOWN IN SEVERITY
COMPARED TO TONIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A BREAK IN
THE STORMS, BUT NIGHTS WILL BE COLD AND SOME FOG CONCERNS EXIST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS ON TARGET FOR NEXT WEEK STARTING
SUNDAY.
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WITH THESE TWO STORMS THIS WEEK IS WITH
SNOW. SEVERAL FEET OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS LIKELY OVER ELEVATIONS
5,000 FEET. FOR LOWER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE LESS BUT STILL IMPACTFUL AS THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR
A FEW INCHES ON THE GRAPEVINE/TEJON PASS AND TEHACHAPI PASS.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLAY.
AVIATION
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HEAVIER RATES CAUSING PERIODIC MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY. MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
THE SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO HEAVY SNOW. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 18 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA,
MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK
AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ300-308-313-
337>339.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ318-320-
322>331.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ333-334-
336.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ335.
PUBLIC...RK
AVIATION....KH
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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