790
FXUS66 KHNX 181907
AFDHNX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1107 AM PST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
1. MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND SNOW.
2. WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, INCLUDING THE I-5/GRAPEVINE AREA.
3. STRONG WINDS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR POWER OUTAGES,
DOWNED TREES, AND ROAD HAZARDS FOR MANY MOUNTAIN AREAS AS WELL
AS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
STORM MAKING ITS EXIT TODAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WHILE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS
MINIMAL, WILL WATCH FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BLEEDING OVER
FROM THE COASTAL RANGE. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
PERCENTILES HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF MINIMAL ACCUMULATION TODAY
WITH LOW CHANCE OF RECEIVING NEAR A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH
ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW LEVEL HAVE DROPPED TO AND BELOW 2,000
FEET AS MANY FOOTHILL LOCATIONS REPORTED SNOWFALL THIS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL TODAY, THURSDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER STORM ENTER THE REGION
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SNOW LEVELS
REMAINING BELOW 3,000 FEET.
NEXT STORM ENTERS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH 30-40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF HAVING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA RECEIVING PRECIPITATION NEAR
MIDNIGHT. THOSE CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
WIDE-SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERTAKES THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
DURING THE MID-DAY PERIOD. BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM WILL BE THE
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AS
TEMPERATURES (AND SNOW LEVELS) BEGIN DROPPING FOR ANOTHER SNOWY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ONLY A MINIMAL PERCENT CHANCE EXIST
OF HAVING THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY RECEIVE SNOW, THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL ACCUMULATE AND THE GRAPEVINE (TEJON PASS) WILL
SEE AN INCH (OR TWO) BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WEAK RIDGING WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A CLEARING
AND A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTERWARD, ANOTHER
STORM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH AN ONSET TIME NEAR
SUNRISE. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION NEAR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHER WITH LESS ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW DURING THE EARLY WEEK STORM.
AVIATION
A 5-15% CHANCE OF TSTM FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY TO 03Z THURSDAY
TOWARDS KMCE AND THE COASTAL RANGES. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE
SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 12 KTS AND BELOW AT THE TAF SITES, BUT WINDS 20-30 KTS
WITH GUSTS 35-45 KTS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT UNTIL
00Z THURSDAY.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 18 2026, FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING
STATUS IS: BURNING DISCOURAGED IN FRESNO, KERN, KINGS, MADERA,
MERCED, AND TULARE COUNTIES, AND KERN (GREATER FRAZIER PARK
AREA) AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK AND FOREST.
CERTAINTY
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.HTML FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ300-308-313-
337>339.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ318-320-
322>331.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ333>336.
PUBLIC/AVIATION....MOLINA
WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD
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